Water crisis in Central Asia

(laichau.gov.vn) Central Asia is facing an increasingly severe water crisis. Despite achieving considerable success in coordination and shifting its approach from competition to cooperation, the region still needs further efforts to avoid future water-related disasters.

(Illustrative image: Xinhua News Agency)

Central Asia has become one of the most vulnerable regions in the world in terms of water security. The recently released United Nations World Water Development Report 2025 highlights that this “land of vast steppes” is one of the areas most severely impacted by climate change on its water resources.

This situation is causing considerable concern. At a recent conference, Kyrgyzstan's leaders emphasized that freshwater shortages in Central Asian countries could reach 20-30% by 2050. Approximately 82 million people in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan are facing water insecurity. Many villages lack regular access to clean water.

The impacts of climate change and shrinking arable land are driving up internal migration. Warnings suggest that by 2050, more than 5 million people in Central Asia could face migration due to climate change.

Central Asia's water insecurity is partly due to the unstable flow of its rivers, which is directly linked to the faster-than-normal decline in glacier mass in Central Asia's high-altitude regions. This poses long-term risks to agriculture , energy, ecosystems, and water resources.

Meanwhile, the overexploitation of water from the region's rivers has also caused numerous negative consequences. Most notably, due to the lack of river inflow, the Aral Sea has continuously shrunk, with its surface area decreasing by 88% and its salinity increasing 20-fold. Because of saline, barren land and polluted water sources, rural communities in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan surrounding the Aral Sea have been leaving en masse.

Central Asia's water insecurity is partly due to the unstable flow of its rivers, which is directly linked to the faster-than-normal decline in glacier mass in Central Asia's high mountain regions.

Central Asia has long considered water resources to be of strategic importance. According to the Daily Sabah, the sharing of water among countries in the region is primarily shaped by geographical differences and economic needs. Upstream, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, which control dam systems and seasonal flows, use water for energy production and consider this resource essential for national development. Downstream, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan also rely heavily on water for production.

This dependence has given water resources high geopolitical value. Control over water resources can be a negotiating tool and an economic leverage, but it also sometimes poses security risks. For example, border disputes between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, partly related to the use of shared water resources, flared up again in 2021, subsequently escalating into military conflicts that resulted in numerous deaths.

Recognizing that water disputes can cause regional instability and escalate into serious security challenges, Central Asian countries have recently strived to find common ground. Consequently, their approach has shifted from competition to dialogue, diplomacy, and cooperation. The issue of water in the region has been redefined, along with its environmental, geopolitical, economic, and social responsibilities.

In particular, 2025 is seen as a "major turning point" for Central Asian countries regarding water resources, as the approach shifts from competition to cooperation in a concrete way. The trilateral border demarcation agreement signed between Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan, along with the "Declaration of Eternal Friendship," reflects a consensus on understanding, not only regarding border disputes, but also fundamental issues such as water resource sharing, access to hydropower infrastructure, and balanced energy and water management.

However, the lack of alignment between national strategic priorities, the inability of management capacity to keep pace with reality, and data sharing issues are posing significant challenges to Central Asia regarding water resources. Observers suggest that a more comprehensive approach is needed to overcome these challenges. Water diplomacy should be integrated with technical expertise. Furthermore, in addition to expanding the functions of regional water management organizations, harmonizing water policies in Central Asia with mechanisms outside the region could facilitate deeper integration into international standards.

Updated July 28, 2025

Source: https://laichau.gov.vn/tin-tuc-su-kien/chuyen-de/tin-trong-nuoc/khung-hoang-nguon-nuoc-o-trung-a.html