Where will Russia-NATO relations go next when the war in Ukraine ends?

According to experts commenting in the National Interest , for Russia, the conflict with Ukraine is not only about the bilateral Russia-Ukraine relationship, but also about the relationship between Russia and Ukraine with the entire North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) alliance.

Regardless of how the war in Ukraine ends, tensions between Russia and the organization are unlikely to end anytime soon.

First, if the war ends without Russia achieving its territorial goals, or Ukraine joins NATO or receives strong support from NATO, Russia will continue to view NATO as an adversary. On the other hand, if its territorial goals are partially achieved, or Russia receives at least Western and Ukrainian approval for annexing regions that Moscow claims as part of Russia, and the United States and other members agree not to admit Ukraine into NATO, then Russia may continue to seek to weaken NATO or pursue other goals.

Where will Russia-NATO relations continue to go when the war in Ukraine ends? (Illustration photo)

Thus, the Russia-NATO relationship is likely to remain fundamentally hostile, and possibly even conflictual, unless there are other major geopolitical developments that affect Russia.

In addition, the Russia-China relationship is also believed to have an impact on these developments. Russia's tension with NATO may conflict with Beijing's desire to improve relations with Europe and try to distance Europe from the US.

It is also worth noting that the Sino-Soviet rift began during the height of Soviet-American tensions during the Cold War, and was exacerbated in the late 1960s and 1970s when the United States appeared to be in decline. This raises the possibility that if the war in Ukraine ends in circumstances that make Russia appear stronger and the United States and NATO appear weaker, then Russian and Chinese interests may begin to diverge further.

Meanwhile, according to RAND , the war in Ukraine has restored some of NATO’s strength but also exposed its weaknesses. Security issues have once again become important to NATO members. Sweden and Finland have abandoned decades — or in Sweden’s case, centuries — of neutrality and want to join the alliance, something that would have been unthinkable before February 2022.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict affects NATO's future in its relationship with Russia. (Illustration photo)

The war in Ukraine has exposed the fault lines of this alliance. Because of historical animosity, dependence on energy imports from Russia, etc., Hungary, Bulgaria, Türkiye and even, to some extent, Romania have all played a more cautious, even ambiguous role in responding to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Some of these groups have even used the conflict to try to extract concessions from their allies. Greece, meanwhile, while not advocating military intervention abroad, was quick to announce that it would provide military aid to Ukraine.

Another thing is that the war turned Poland into a major player as an arms supplier and supply route into Ukraine, as well as providing shelter to some 1.5 million Ukrainian refugees. From these actions, Poland emerged as a major influencer in the bloc.

As such, these pieces will also affect Russia-NATO relations in general, even after the war ends.

Phuong Anh (Source: National Interest)

Source: https://vtcnews.vn/quan-he-nga-nato-tiep-tuc-di-ve-dau-khi-chien-su-ukraine-ket-thuc-ar904580.html