Real Madrid wins on xG, Barca wins in real life.

Even with Mbappe, Real Madrid still couldn't win La Liga.

Football (soccer) is always fascinating because it's not a sport of absolute calculations. And that's also why xG statistics continue to be controversial despite their increasing popularity among analysts.

According to Opta's La Liga rankings, based on "expected goals" and "expected points," Real Madrid should have been the champions this season. Arbeloa's team achieved 76.9 expected points, slightly higher than Barcelona's 75.9. However, on the pitch, Barcelona finished 8 points ahead of Real Madrid.

That gap highlights the excitement of modern football. xG may reflect the ability to create chances, but it cannot fully measure the character, finishing quality, or match-deciding ability of each team.

Barcelona this season is the clearest example. The Catalan team had a total goal-scoring xG of 86.6 but actually scored 95 goals. This shows they capitalized on opportunities better than the statistics expected. Conversely, Real Madrid scored exactly 77 goals, very close to their xG of 78. The difference lies in efficiency.

It's noteworthy that Barcelona isn't a team that makes a difference thanks to a single individual. Robert Lewandowski's xG (xrimetric) is nearly equivalent to the number of goals he's scored. Meanwhile, Ferran Torres and Lamine Yamal have both scored more goals than expected. This is a sign of a team that knows how to convert opportunities into goals.

Barcelona demonstrated effectiveness in attack.

Meanwhile, Real Madrid presented the opposite picture. Kylian Mbappe maintained his high performance with 25 goals from an xG of 23.9. Vinicius Junior also scored more than expected. However, that difference was not enough to pull the team ahead of Barcelona.

Conversely, Jude Bellingham only scored 6 goals despite his xG rating being close to 8, indicating that Real Madrid also missed quite a few opportunities that should have been better utilized.

The interesting aspect of the xG rankings isn't just the title race. According to these statistics, Athletic Bilbao should have qualified for European competition, and Sevilla should have been relegated instead of Girona.

This reflects a familiar reality of modern football. There are teams that perform better than the results they get, and there are also clubs that know how to make the most of the moment even without creating many chances.

Iñaki Williams is a prime example. He only scored 3 goals despite his xG exceeding 6. This partly explains why Athletic Bilbao is rated lower than they could have been. Conversely, many Celta Vigo players have scored far more goals than their statistics suggest.

Football, therefore, always has a gap between data and reality. xG helps people understand the game in more depth. It shows which team creates more dangerous opportunities, which players are more effective at finishing, and which teams are performing well tactically.

However, football is never decided solely by numbers. Otherwise, Barcelona wouldn't have won La Liga this season.

Source: https://znews.vn/real-madrid-thang-tren-xg-barca-thang-ngoai-doi-post1654138.html