The $40 billion IPO wave has arrived, but where will the money come from to absorb it?

The third wave of IPOs is returning after a disruption caused by geopolitical instability in Q2 2026. However, unlike the previous two cycles, the market is now facing a polarized flow of capital, tightening liquidity, and a more cautious investment appetite.

The market before a wave of $40 billion IPOs - Photo: HUU HANH

The $40 billion IPO wave and the "chicken and egg" dilemma.

According to Dragon Capital's forecast, the wave of IPOs between 2026 and 2028 could reach approximately $40 billion. The consumer sector alone, including Thaco Auto, Bach Hoa Xanh, Golden Gate, and Highlands Coffee, is estimated to account for around $12.8 billion.

This scale has prompted investors to look back at previous IPO cycles. Mr. Bui Van Huy, Director of Investment Research at FIDT JSC, stated that "each major IPO wave usually coincides with a peak in the VN-Index, followed by a significant correction."

This cycle first appeared in 2007, repeated in 2018, and is now entering its third wave, starting in 2025.

Notably, after the initial cycle, the VN-Index fell by approximately 80%, dropping to around 235 points in early 2009. The period of 2018 also witnessed a sharp market correction following large-scale IPOs.

However, the biggest difference in the current cycle lies in the context of capital flows. The two previous waves occurred when money was cheap, liquidity was abundant, and interest rates were low. Now, the economy is facing a structural capital shortage, while interest rates are unlikely to fall significantly.

According to Mr. Huy, Vietnam is facing a "chicken and egg" dilemma: achieving 10% GDP growth requires large-scale public investment; securing capital for public investment requires a developed capital market; but a developed capital market, in turn, requires low interest rates and investor confidence.

"If this cycle doesn't close, the worst-case scenario could be restricted public investment, weakened growth, and a prolonged market correction," Huy commented.

Investors are becoming increasingly selective.

By May 2026, the VN-Index had surpassed 1,900 points at many points and continuously challenged new peak levels. However, paradoxically, many individual investors still failed to make money.

According to Mr. Huy, the reason lies in the excessive concentration of capital. In April 2026 alone, the two stocks VIC and VHM contributed 167 out of 179 points of the VN-Index increase, equivalent to about 93% of the total market increase.

If Vingroup is excluded, the VN-Index is almost flat. Meanwhile, the majority of individual investors hold mid-cap stocks in banking, securities, steel, oil and gas, or real estate – sectors that are mostly flat or undergoing corrections.

The result is a "green outside, red inside" situation: the index rises, but the investor's account value decreases.

With an IPO size projected at around $40 billion between 2026 and 2028, Mr. Huy poses a big question: Who will be the buyers?

Meanwhile, Mr. Nguyen Van Truc - Head of the National Securities Analysis Department at NSI - assessed that the market is currently "thirsty for new, high-quality stocks but extremely selective." Mr. Truc believes that the era of cheap money has ended and the current money flow is clearly more defensive in nature.

According to Mr. Truc, for a company to successfully raise capital at this stage of its IPO, it needs to meet three conditions: 1. A clear growth story, 2. Good free cash flow, and 3. Sufficiently attractive valuation.

He also noted that opportunities are opening up if businesses can take advantage of the trend of administrative procedure reform and reduction of business conditions.

"This is like removing 'blood clots' from the bloodstream of the economy. A real estate or infrastructure project that gets licensed a few months earlier can help businesses save tens of billions of dong in interest costs and accelerate capital turnover," Mr. Truc commented.

The test case with the Dien May Xanh deal.

Dien May Xanh (DMX), a deal expected to generate a market capitalization of VND 102,460 billion (USD 3.9 billion), has been the subject of some notable events recently.

Notably, Vietcap Securities (Vietcap) has been involved as the exclusive advisor in this transaction. Information from Vietcap Securities indicates that the securities firm is preparing for roadshows regarding the Dien May Xanh IPO at the end of May 2026.

Dien May Xanh will offer more than 179.5 million shares at a price of VND 80,000 per share, expected to raise approximately VND 14,360 billion.

This deal is seen as a significant test of the ability to absorb capital before a new wave of IPOs accelerates.

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Hoc Khiem

Source: https://tuoitre.vn/song-ipo-40-ti-usd-da-toi-tien-o-dau-de-hap-thu-20260525201425432.htm