Economic growth 2025: Determined to overcome challenges, make comprehensive breakthroughs

In 2025, in the context of the global economy continuing to face many complex and unpredictable developments, Vietnam enters a pivotal period with high growth targets combined with proactive response to major external challenges.

Five key task groups were set out with the requirement to be implemented resolutely, promptly and effectively, clearly demonstrating the appropriateness and urgency of the directives. (Photo: Vietnam+)

To realize the economic growth target of 8.3%-8.5% in 2025 and create a solid foundation for the 2026-2030 period with a double-digit growth rate, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh signed and issued Official Dispatch No. 133/CD-TTg on August 12 with a roadmap and urgent, synchronous solutions, thereby demonstrating the Government's high determination in maintaining the development momentum while shaping a quality and sustainable economy.

Strategic direction in a volatile context

In fact, over the past 7 months, the Vietnamese economy has achieved many outstanding and relatively comprehensive results. This affirms the economy's ability to respond and adapt under the close leadership of the Party and the strong direction of the Government . However, assessing the last months of 2025 and the coming time, the Government also anticipates that there will be more difficulties and challenges than opportunities and advantages.

Therefore, the Prime Minister 's Official Dispatch 133 has pointed out the strategic direction, emphasizing the promotion of growth in all three main pillars of the economy: industry-construction, agriculture-forestry-fishery and services. In particular, the Official Dispatch requires proactive adaptation to the US's reciprocal tariff policy while maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation and ensuring major balances of the economy. In particular, five key groups of tasks are set out with the requirement to be implemented resolutely, promptly and effectively, clearly demonstrating the appropriateness and urgency of the directives.

Regarding the socio-economic situation in the first 7 months, Ms. Nguyen Thi Huong, Director of the General Statistics Office, pointed out bright spots and the consistency with the Government's orientation. In particular, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector maintained stable growth momentum. This will be a "support" associated with export and sustainable consumption, thereby maximizing the potential and added value from this sector. Similarly, the industrial production index (IIP) in the first 7 months increased by 8.6% over the same period last year. The processing and manufacturing sector alone increased by 10.3%, the highest increase compared to the same period in the 2020-2024 period, showing strong momentum from the manufacturing sector.

The processing and manufacturing industry increased by 10.3%, the highest increase compared to the same period in the 2020-2024 period, showing strong momentum from the manufacturing sector. (Photo: Vietnam+)

That foundation opens up prospects for the growth target of 9.6%-9.8% in added value for industry and 11.2%-11.5% for processing and manufacturing (as set out in Official Dispatch 133) associated with boosting production while restructuring the market, diversifying products and supply chains. In particular, the trade, service and tourism sectors have seen strong growth. Total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue in the first 7 months are estimated to increase by 9.3% over the same period last year, contributing to creating significant momentum for economic growth. In addition, the total export and import turnover of goods in the first 7 months is estimated at 514.7 billion USD and an increase of 16.3% over the same period last year, of which the trade surplus reached 10.18 billion USD. This shows the competitiveness of goods in the international market along with the effectiveness of trade promotion policies.

Not only that, Ms. Huong emphasized that business activities were vibrant, with 174,000 enterprises joining the economy, 1.2 times the number of enterprises withdrawing from the market. The total registered capital added to the economy reached more than 3.3 trillion VND, up 93.7% over the same period in 2024. Along with that, the average consumer price index (CPI) in the first 7 months increased by 3.26% and was lower than the increase of 4.12% in the same period in 2024, demonstrating that the Government has controlled inflation well, creating a stable environment for production and business activities and people's lives. This is a solid foundation for achieving the goal of maintaining macroeconomic stability and controlling inflation in the last months of the year.

Unlocking growth drivers

To realize the growth target of 8.3% - 8.5%, economic experts have analyzed the growth drivers and proposed appropriate solutions. Specifically, Dr. Nguyen Duc Do, Deputy Director of the Institute of Economics and Finance (Academy of Finance) said that it is necessary to pay attention to all drivers in the remaining months of 2025. He also paid special attention to the untapped potentials, such as the savings rate reaching a fairly high level, about 36-37% of GDP (consumption about 63% of GDP), while investment only reached about 31-32% of GDP. In other words, resources have not been fully utilized, so there is still room to stimulate both investment and consumption to achieve higher growth.

Along with that, Mr. Do supports solutions to stimulate consumption, such as the proposal of the Ministry of Finance to increase the family deduction for personal income tax payers to 15.5 million VND/month and for dependents to 6.2 million VND/month. This policy will help increase disposable income of households. In addition, he also agrees with the monetary policy of the State Bank of Vietnam to loosen the credit growth limit this year to 16%. Trying to keep interest rates stable is also one of the solutions that contributes significantly to stimulating consumption and investment.

Regarding investment, Mr. Do emphasized the need to drastically promote public investment disbursement. On the other hand, he also emphasized the need to continue institutional reform and further cut administrative procedures to improve the business environment, thereby attracting domestic and foreign private investment. Along with that, policies to encourage startups, innovation, application of science and technology and improving labor productivity are also solutions that have not only short-term but also long-term impacts.

In addition, Master Tran Dinh Nuoi, Institute of Vietnam and World Economics, pointed out that the private economy is the new growth pillar of Vietnam with overwhelming quantity (accounting for 97.5% of total enterprises) and an increasing role in contributing to GDP (from 40.8% in 2020 to 43.7% in 2025). In particular, medium and large enterprises account for only 4% of the quantity but contribute about 50% of the total production value and added value of the private sector, which shows their "locomotive" role.

Trying to keep interest rates stable is also one of the solutions that contributes significantly to stimulating consumption and investment. (Photo: Vietnam+)

Therefore, Mr. Nuoi proposed solutions to develop the private economy, creating a solid foundation to achieve growth goals. Specifically, perfecting institutions and policies, including reviewing and amending overlapping regulations, simplifying administrative procedures, ensuring stability and transparency. Improving access to capital and land through building credit guarantee funds, expanding preferential credit, planning and arranging clean land funds reasonably. Promoting innovation and digital transformation, such as encouraging R&D investment, developing innovation centers, connecting businesses with research institutes.

At the same time, Mr. Nuoi believes that it is necessary to improve corporate governance capacity and develop high-quality human resources, such as training in modern governance skills, supporting the improvement of governance capacity according to international standards, and building a high-quality workforce. Building and developing value chains, industry clusters and ecosystems by promoting linkages between business types to increase added value and competitiveness. In particular, improving the business environment to be transparent, healthy and competitive, including strengthening anti-corruption, reducing informal costs, and protecting the legitimate rights and interests of businesses.

According to Mr. Nuoi, these solutions not only directly support promoting social investment, developing science and technology, and innovation, but also create favorable conditions for restructuring the market, diversifying products and supply chains.

Responding to global challenges and long-term vision

One of the biggest challenges requiring proactive response is the new tariff policy from the US. Ms. Nguyen Thi Huong analyzed that the US Government's application of a 20% tax on goods originating from Vietnam, effective from August 7, will certainly create certain impacts on Vietnam's import-export activities and foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. She predicted that the growth rate of export turnover to the US may slow down in the last months of 2025, especially for 12 key commodity groups.

However, Ms. Huong is also optimistic about Vietnam's ability to adapt: "Vietnam's overall export growth in 2025 is still expected to remain high. This is thanks to the ability to effectively take advantage of the Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) that Vietnam has signed, not only maintaining traditional markets well but also proactively diversifying to new markets with great potential."

In the long term, Ms. Huong emphasized that Vietnam will continue to strongly improve the business investment environment, create the most favorable conditions for businesses, and step up support for domestic enterprises to expand trade growth, diversify export markets, and improve the capacity and competitiveness of goods.

Vietnam's overall export growth in 2025 is expected to remain high. (Photo: Vietnam+)

To continue achieving the double-digit growth target in the 2026-2030 period, Dr. Dang Duc Anh, Deputy Director of the Institute for Policy and Strategy Studies, gave important orientations on improving growth quality. Specifically, the average labor productivity growth rate is about 8.1% - 8.6%/year and the average TFP contribution is 55%/year.

On that basis, Mr. Duc Anh proposed strategic directions on raising awareness of growth quality, mainly based on increasing productivity, applying science and technology, innovation, digital transformation, improving the efficiency of resource use and human resource quality. Removing bottlenecks in human resource quality, such as institutionalizing the policy of lifelong learning, popularizing digital learning, continuously improving the quality of human resources. Investing effectively in science and technology, innovation, digital transformation. Forming a set of indicators to monitor the process of improving growth quality, building a system of indicators to monitor and evaluate effectiveness.

In general, the overall picture of Vietnam's economy in the past 7 months shows that the economy is on the path of recovery with many bright spots in the production, trade and service sectors. These achievements show the correctness and effectiveness of the management policies since the beginning of the year.

However, existing limitations and challenges, such as the pandemic, unmet consumption, pressure from exports and businesses' access to capital, along with fluctuations from US tariff policies... have been and are posing urgent demands for more drastic management.

Therefore, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh’s Official Dispatch 133 is a timely and appropriate directive, demonstrating the Government’s strategic vision and strong determination. The Official Dispatch focuses on maintaining and promoting growth drivers that have been and are being effective while directly addressing “bottlenecks,” creating a solid foundation for long-term sustainable development./.

According to VNA

Source: https://baothanhhoa.vn/tang-truong-kinh-te-2025-quyet-tam-vuot-thach-thuc-but-pha-toan-dien-258182.htm