The Pentagon's dilemma

According to Defense News, US defense officials have identified hypersonic weapons—which have a minimum speed of Mach 5 (five times the speed of sound)—as a “game changer” in future conflicts. National Defense Magazine, citing a new report released by the National Defense Industry Association (NDIA), states that senior Pentagon officials believe Washington needs hundreds of hypersonic weapons “in a short period of time,” and the number could even be “thousands or tens of thousands.”

Speaking at the report's release, Congressman Doug Lamborn of the House Armed Services Committee also affirmed that Washington's development of hypersonic capabilities is "non-negotiable."

The Pentagon has publicly stated that it has 10 hypersonic weapons programs in the research and development phase. The first of these programs could move into production as early as this year. According to Defense News, the NDIA asserts that the transition from the development and testing phase of hypersonic technology to large-scale weapons production will require “a significant focus of budget and effort” from the Pentagon and the U.S. defense industry.

Typically, the transition itself is a challenge. Defense industry leaders and experts in the U.S. believe the issue will become even more complicated as Washington attempts to replenish its arsenal while simultaneously increasing military aid to Ukraine. “In addition to advancing its hypersonic weapons program, the Department of Defense still needs to replenish its arsenal. This could be good for the U.S. defense industry, but it’s certainly a challenge,” Defense News quoted Jason Fischer, a senior representative at Northrop Grumman, as saying.

Fischer said that U.S. defense corporations are receiving “increasingly frequent” requests from the Pentagon to produce conventional missiles “within shorter timeframes.” This is the situation that “makes the U.S. defense industry most difficult to navigate” because it often requires additional investments in facilities and equipment.

Meanwhile, according to Marty Hunt, a senior official at Dynetics, Washington's need to replenish its arsenal "makes it more difficult" to access the necessary materials for producing hypersonic weapons. This also necessitates "shifting highly skilled hypersonic workers to production lines where demand is high." "This has a negative impact, potentially delaying ongoing hypersonic weapons programs," Defense News quoted Hunt as saying.

According to The Washington Post, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), based in Washington, believes that the current production rate of US defense corporations “may not be sufficient to prevent the depletion” of key weapons systems that Washington is supplying to Kyiv. Even with accelerated production, it could still take the US at least five years to “restore its stockpile of Javelin anti-tank missiles, Stinger surface-to-air missiles, and other essential weapons.”

In another study, CSIS estimated that at peacetime production rates, it would take the U.S. up to 15 years, and over 8 years at wartime production rates, to replenish critical weapons systems such as guided missiles, manned aircraft, and armed drones if they were destroyed in combat or provided to allied nations.

Meanwhile, regarding hypersonic weapons, Congressman Lamborn also pointed out that, although the US is ahead, it lags behind its rivals. According to CNN, currently only Russia and China are known to possess "deployable" hypersonic weapons.

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