Dr. Nguyen Ngoc Huy: "Still shocked when talking about storm number 3"

(Dan Tri) - "Looking back at the damage after storm No. 3, I sat there stunned, my hands shaking and it took me 45 minutes to write the weather forecast," Dr. Nguyen Ngoc Huy shared his feelings.

" Looking back at the damage after storm No. 3, I sat there, my hands shaking and it took me 45 minutes to write the weather forecast ." These are the shared lines of Dr. Nguyen Ngoc Huy, who is famous on social networks with the nickname "Weather Huy". Although he is a storm forecasting expert, having "experienced" many super storms in the world , Dr. Huy was still surprised and had special emotions when our country suffered from super storm Yagi, leaving behind extremely heavy damage. Now, when the storm has dissipated and the damage caused by the storm is gradually being overcome, Dr. Huy sat down to give a panoramic view. "When the eye of storm No. 3 was still in the middle of the Gulf of Tonkin and strong winds were forecast from early morning on September 7, I imagined a bad scenario," the expert recounted.

Unusually strong storm

Direction of movement of storm Yagi (Photo: NHCMF)

In May, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued a warning to people around the world to prepare for a very strong typhoon season in 2024. But few expected it to be this terrible. To talk about the origin of Typhoon Yagi, we can go back to August 30, when the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) reported that a low-pressure area had formed about 540 km northwest of the Republic of Palau. This large low-pressure area began to organize and develop into a tropical depression on August 31. On September 1, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration confirmed the existence of a tropical depression and named it Enteng, because the depression formed in the Philippine area of ​​responsibility. However, just a few hours later, the system quickly strengthened into a tropical storm and was named Yagi by the JMA. Typhoon Yagi then turned northwest, along the southwest edge of the mid-level subtropical ridge, cutting its convection bands to the north. On September 3, the JMA reported that Yagi had strengthened into a tropical storm, gaining intense strength due to warm sea surface temperatures and high ocean heat. Early the next morning, both the JMA and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) upgraded the storm to a Category 2 storm as an eye began to form on satellite imagery.

The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting monitors the development of storm Yagi (Photo: Nguyen Hai)

On September 5, JTWC upgraded the system of Typhoon Yagi to a super typhoon, with maximum sustained winds of 260 km/h in one minute. Typhoon Yagi became a category 5 super typhoon and was the fourth typhoon to reach this level in the East Sea, after typhoon Pamela (in 1954), typhoon Rammasun (in 2014) and typhoon Rai (in 2021). A day later, JMA upgraded Yagi to a severe typhoon, estimating that it reached its peak intensity with a minimum central pressure of 915 mb (27.0 inHg) and maximum sustained winds of 195 km/h in 10 minutes. From satellite images, the eye of the storm can be seen clearly, with a diameter of approximately 27.8 km. Sharing with Dan Tri reporter, Dr. Nguyen Ngoc Huy said that he had anticipated the destruction of infrastructure with the wind force of the last strong typhoon of CAT3 approaching that of the typhoon of CAT4. "Most of the strong storms CAT4 and CAT5 destroyed infrastructure. From ports, factories, corrugated iron roofs, tiled roofs, glass doors of low-rise and high-rise buildings were all devastated by the storm. Even a strong infrastructure like the US was devastated by the storm," said Dr. Huy. However, after the storm, the images of the damage that were released still surprised even a veteran expert like Dr. Huy. "Looking back at the damage after storm No. 3, I sat there stunned, my hands shaking, and it took me 45 minutes to write a weather forecast," Dr. Huy recalled, still in shock after Vietnam suffered a historic storm.

The storm is over and then the disaster happens.

Those who were "trapped" in the path of Typhoon Yagi had probably never experienced such a terrifying feeling in their lives. The sound of the wind whistling outside the door, the sound of rain rushing down and hitting the road, the sound of metal roofs hitting each other... All of this created an extremely terrifying scene. However, that was not all. What followed the storm was the real disaster.

Dr. Nguyen Ngoc Huy is still shocked when talking about storm number 3 (Photo: NVCC)

"When I livestreamed to forecast storm No. 3, I always mentioned that the storm would carry its circulation like a water bomb," Dr. Huy recalled. Indeed, within two days of September 8 and 9, the total rainfall in the mountainous and midland areas of the North reached 350-400mm, many places exceeding 500-600mm. "For the Central region, such rainfall in 48 hours is normal. But with the steep mountainous terrain in the North, it would be a disaster," Dr. Huy said.

Storm No. 3 caused an ancient tree to fall in Ly Thai To flower garden, Hanoi (Photo: Nguyen Nguyen)

Next 3 months: Rain, storm and flood situation will be complicated and unpredictable

According to the Department of Dyke Management and Natural Disaster Prevention ( Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development ), by 5:00 p.m. on September 14, storm No. 3 and its circulation had left 352 people dead and missing (276 dead, 76 missing). The death toll increased by 14 people compared to the statistics at 8:00 a.m. on the same day. "There must be a book about Yagi: Our children and grandchildren must learn about this storm." This is the opinion of Dr. Nguyen Ngoc Huy after witnessing everything the storm left behind. Although the damage was extremely severe, we should start looking at the positives and draw lessons for the next time. According to Dr. Huy, if we compare the human losses of storms CAT4 and CAT5 in other countries, we have achieved a "miracle."

Vinh Phuc provincial authorities support people during the recent floods (Photo: Vinh Phuc Police)

This is thanks to the participation of the entire political system: From the drastic direction and management from the Government; to the proactive, timely, effective, early, remote, direct response on the scene from localities, the business community and the people. All have contributed to minimizing the extent of damage, possible risks and consequences left by storm No. 3. According to Dr. Nguyen Ngoc Huy, in the second half of September, October and November, the situation of rain, storms and floods will be complicated and unpredictable in the Central region. Along with that, climate change is also a favorable condition for storms to develop, as they tend to absorb warm seawater like a "sponge" and gradually increase in size. According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, in 2024, storms/tropical depressions in the East Sea may form about 11 - 13 storms. Storm and tropical depression activity, as usual, is likely to be most concentrated from September to November.

Dantri.com.vn

Source: https://dantri.com.vn/khoa-hoc-cong-nghe/ts-nguyen-ngoc-huy-van-chua-het-bang-hoang-khi-nhac-toi-bao-so-3-20240916021653100.htm