What future for oil?

Oil prices today 11/10/2024: Oil supply is increasing amid falling demand and geopolitical instability: What will the future of oil be like?

Gasoline price today November 10, 2024

Recorded on Oilprice at 5:00 a.m. on November 10, 2024 (Vietnam time), WTI oil price was at 73.90 USD/barrel, down 2.33% (equivalent to a decrease of 1.76 USD/barrel).

WTI oil price on the world market early morning November 10, 2024 (Vietnam time)

Similarly, Brent oil price was at 70.43 USD/barrel, down 2.74% (equivalent to a decrease of 1.98 USD/barrel).

Brent oil price on the world market early morning November 10, 2024 (Vietnam time)

Brent crude prices rose more than 10% in early October before paring gains by the end of the month. Strong supply and weak demand, especially from China, kept prices in check as the market reassessed the risks to Middle East oil infrastructure.

Key risks to this forecast include the pace at which OPEC+ production cuts are eased, the outlook for global consumption growth, particularly in China, and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Global oil demand growth continues to lose momentum. Global demand, which is expected to reach 103 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2024, is expected to grow by around 1 mb/d in 2025—a significant slowdown from 2 mb/d in 2023. This trend reflects a long-term slowdown, with average annual growth of 1.9 mb/d in 2010–14 and 1.4 mb/d in 2015–19.

The slowdown in oil consumption is particularly pronounced in China, where demand is expected to decline by 0.3 mb/d in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the same period last year. China’s oil consumption is being negatively impacted by weak growth in industrial production, rapid adoption of electric and hybrid vehicles, and the growing popularity of liquefied natural gas (LNG)-powered trucks.

Global oil supply continues to grow. The expansion of global oil supply accelerated to 1.1 percent in the third quarter of 2024 (year-on-year). This increase was driven by production growth in advanced economies and Latin America and the Caribbean, as OPEC+ supply remained relatively stable over the period. Next year, global oil supply is expected to exceed demand by about 1.2 mb/d/day.

If realized, it would be the third-largest surplus in recent oil market history, after the imbalances during the pandemic-related shutdowns of 2020 and the oil price collapse of 1998. This oversupply is exacerbated by high levels of spare capacity, which represent a little over 7 percent of current global production. The size of the combined surplus and spare capacity by 2025 – if realized – is likely to limit the impact of potential geopolitical tensions on oil prices. Global growth and geopolitical tensions are the main risks to the oil price outlook.

Because the forecast does not include a major escalation of ongoing conflicts, any significant expansion of hostilities against oil-producing countries in the Middle East could lead to a sharp and sustained increase in oil prices. If global oil supply were to fall by 2 mb/d due to a conflict-related shock by the end of 2024, Brent prices could peak at $92/bbl. While prices would still be higher than pre-escalation levels, they would decline in 2025 as oil production increases at unaffected producers. For all of 2025, Brent prices could average $84/bbl, 15 percent higher than the baseline forecast but only 5 percent higher than the average price in 2024.

The reversal of voluntary OPEC+ cuts and high levels of spare capacity pose downside risks to the oil price outlook. In the face of expanding non-OPEC+ oil production, OPEC+ could instead choose to prioritize market share over price and completely reverse the 2.2 mb/d voluntary cuts by the end of 2025. However, this additional production would flow into an already well-supplied market, adding to the oil surplus and putting downward pressure on prices. Under these circumstances, Brent crude oil prices are expected to fall to an average of around $66/bbl in 2025, around 10 percent below the baseline forecast and 18 percent below the expected average price in 2024.

Domestic retail gasoline prices on November 10, 2024 will be applied according to the adjustment session from 3:00 p.m. on November 7 by the Ministry of Finance - Ministry of Industry and Trade.

Item	Price (VND/liter/kg)	Difference from previous period
E5 RON 92 gasoline	19,744	+336
RON 95 gasoline	20,854	+351
Diesel	18,917	+769
Oil	19,294	+461
Fuel oil	16,394	-67

Specifically, the price of E5 RON 92 gasoline increased by VND336/liter, to VND19,744/liter; RON 95 gasoline increased by VND351/liter, to VND20,854/liter.

Diesel 0.05S price: Increased by 769 VND/liter, at 18,917 VND/liter; Kerosene increased by 461 VND/liter, at 19,294 VND/liter; Mazut 180CST 3.5S decreased by 67 VND/kg, down to 16,394 VND/kg.

Gasoline price today November 10, 2024. Illustration photo

In this management period, the Ministry of Industry and Trade - Ministry of Finance did not set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund for E5RON92 gasoline, RON95 gasoline, diesel oil, kerosene, and mazut oil.

Thus, from the beginning of 2024 to now, domestic gasoline prices have undergone 44 adjustment sessions, including 21 decrease sessions, 18 increase sessions and 6 opposite sessions.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/gia-xang-dau-hom-nay-10112024-tuong-lai-nao-cho-dau-mo-357880.html