Exchange rate "hot", gold regains 100 million VND/tael mark

The State Bank of Vietnam raised the central exchange rate by 38 VND/USD. The exchange rate at commercial banks even reached the maximum ceiling when it increased to 62 VND/USD, although the pressure on the USD in the international market has decreased. The DXY index is currently only around 102.5 points.

On the morning of April 9, the central exchange rate announced by the State Bank increased sharply by 38 VND, to 24,936 VND/USD, marking the 6th consecutive increase since the beginning of the month. With a trading band of +/-5% as prescribed, the ceiling exchange rate is currently 26,182 VND/USD . At the State Foreign Exchange Reserve Management Department, this agency announced the reference USD exchange rate at a record high of 26,132 VND/USD.

At the same time, the exchange rate at commercial banks also set a new record high . After a period of maintaining a certain distance from the maximum allowed level, the exchange rate at banks returned to the ceiling. At Vietcombank , the USD /VND exchange rate listed at 25,822 VND/USD (buy by transfer) and 26,182 VND/USD (sell) – equal to the allowed ceiling. Similarly, the EUR/VND exchange rate also jumped to 29,615 VND to 1 euro.

The hot increase in domestic exchange rates occurred in the context of the index The US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling sharply . The DXY index traded below 102.5 points, marking the second consecutive session of decline, after President Donald Trump announced that he would impose a 104% tariff on goods from China, while also expanding the tariffs to pharmaceuticals and many other goods from other countries. The move by the world's two largest economies has investors worried about a full-blown trade war , leading to fears of a global economic recession.

Compared to the beginning of the year, the central exchange rate increased by 601 VND/USD (+2.47%), the USD/VND selling rate at Vietcombank also increased by about 2.47 % . On the contrary, the DXY index plummeted by 5.5% compared to the high comparison level at the end of last year.

In the gold market, the price fluctuations are not too strong, world gold remains around the threshold of 3,000 USD/ounce . Gold prices are being supported by the decline of the USD and the need to protect against economic risks. Domestically, the price of SJC gold bars on the morning of April 9 regained the 100 million VND/tael mark, currently listed at 98.3 million VND/tael (buy) and 100.5 million VND/tael (sell), an increase of 700,000 VND/tael compared to yesterday morning.

According to Mr. Nguyen Hoai Linh, Head of VCBF Research Department, developments in the gold market are something to watch when monitoring pressures on the foreign exchange market. Foreign currency supply will depend heavily on this market. If domestic gold demand remains too high, the hoarding of foreign currency to import gold will affect foreign currency supply.

Although the exchange rate is heating up and the gold price is turning up, Mr. Nguyen Hoai Linh, Head of VCBF Research Department, predicts that the pressure on the foreign exchange market may cool down . The interest rate level in the US will decrease, helping to narrow the interest rate gap between Vietnam and the US, thereby reducing speculative activities and hoarding foreign currencies to benefit from the interest rate gap . At the same time, in the best scenario, import and export activities will still maintain a trade surplus .

Forecasting interest rate developments, Mr. Linh also emphasized that although the economy's money demand is not high, as shown by the credit growth rate in the first quarter of 2025, it is still quite weak, but attention should be paid in case of high exchange rate pressure. The State Bank may have to take measures to protect the currency, thereby causing interest rates to increase further. Looking back at the story in 2022, the Fed raised interest rates very strongly and led to the State Bank having to sell foreign exchange reserves of 2-3 billion USD, equivalent to withdrawing about 500,000 billion VND from the economy, affecting liquidity.

But the current international landscape is different than it was in 2022. Last week's reciprocal tariff order prompted economists at JPMorgan to sharply cut their economic forecasts, now expecting US GDP to contract by 0.3% instead of rising by 1.3%. JPMorgan said the US economy will enter a recession in the second half of 2025 as the impact of President Donald Trump's tariffs begins to bite. Investors are betting on more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year as President Donald Trump's aggressive tariff policies stoke recession fears.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/ty-gia-nong-ran-vang-lay-lai-moc-100-trieu-dongluong-d264937.html