USD exchange rate today (December 30): Will the USD continue to hold steady above the 108 mark?

USD exchange rate today (December 30): Early morning of December 30, 2024, the State Bank announced the central exchange rate of Vietnamese Dong to USD is currently at: 24,322 VND.

The USD Index (DXY), which measures the greenback's performance against a basket of six major currencies, stood at 108.01.

Forecast of USD trend this week

The DXY index has been trading in a very narrow range this week, holding steady at 108. Investors remain cautious and the thin end-of-year trading sessions have limited volatility in the currency market. Despite profit-taking after last week’s gains, the greenback has continued to rise as traders return from the Christmas holidays.

Chart of DXY Index fluctuations over the past week. Photo: Marketwatch

The most important factor affecting the value of the US dollar is monetary policy, which is determined by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two missions: controlling inflation and promoting the labor market. The Fed's main tool to achieve these two goals is adjusting interest rates. When prices rise too quickly and inflation is higher than the Fed's 2% target, the Fed will raise interest rates, which is beneficial and contributes to boosting the value of the greenback. Conversely, when inflation falls below 2% or unemployment is too high, the Fed can lower interest rates, which puts pressure on the greenback.

The Fed's interest rate range is currently 4.25-4.50%. However, the surprise for the market came from their economic forecasts.

The Fed has now indicated that it will only cut rates by a total of 50 basis points in 2025. In September, the central bank had forecast 100 basis points of cuts next year. The Fed has also revised its inflation outlook higher for 2025.

This forecast suggests a slowdown in future rate cuts and higher inflation, contributing to the rise in the DXY index.

The DXY index hit a high of 108.25 last week and has been falling since. It is currently trading around 108. The overall picture is bullish for the index. Strong support lies in the 107.50-107 zone. A sustained rally above 108.5 would then pave the way for a rally to the 110-111 zone in the coming weeks.

Conversely, if the index falls below 107, a short-term bearish outlook will emerge. In that scenario, it could fall to the 106-105 zone.

In addition, expectations of a slowdown in the rate-cutting process have pushed US Treasury yields higher, thereby pushing the greenback higher.

Meanwhile, the EUR/USD index recovered slightly and closed the week at 1.04205. It hit a low of 1.0385 and then recovered. Resistance is in the 1.0450-1.0500 zone. Therefore, the upside potential may be limited to 1.05 in the future. A fresh decline from this level or after a rise to 1.0500 could drag the EUR to the 1.0350-1.0300 zone in the short term.

USD exchange rate today December 30, 2024: Will the USD continue to hold firm above the 108 mark? Photo: Reuters

USD exchange rate in the country today

In the domestic market, at the beginning of the trading session on December 30, the State Bank announced the central exchange rate of the Vietnamese Dong to the USD at 24,322 VND.

* The reference exchange rate at the State Bank's transaction office remains unchanged, currently at: 23,400 VND - 25,450 VND.

USD exchange rate at commercial banks buy and sell as follows: