USD exchange rate today (August 4): USD likely to slightly depreciate

The USD Index (DXY), which measures the greenback's performance against a basket of six major currencies, stood at 98.60.

Forecast of USD trend this week

Last week, the USD Index (DXY), which measures the strength of the USD against six major currencies, marked its strongest weekly gain since 2022, thanks to Fed Chairman Powell's steadfast statement that there would be no interest rate cut in September. However, the DXY index fell sharply on August 2, 2025, reaching 98.69, down 1.28% from the previous session.

Chart of DXY Index fluctuations over the past week. Photo: Marketwatch

The decline was largely driven by the US July jobs report, which showed just 73,000 new jobs were created, well below analysts' expectations of 110,000. At the same time, the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2%, raising concerns about a weakening US labor market. These figures have raised expectations that the US Federal Reserve could cut interest rates at its September policy meeting, a move that usually puts downward pressure on the USD.

“The market is reacting to the possibility of a recession . Weak jobs data is piling up on weak earnings reports and weak forecasts from some companies,” said Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust.

Geopolitical tensions have eased somewhat in recent weeks, with trade deals once again taking center stage. The recently announced US-EU trade deal has been criticized by some officials on the continent, with the French prime minister calling it a failure for the EU, while German chancellor Merz warned of its negative impact on exporters and economic growth. The EUR/USD pair bottomed on August 1 and settled around 1.1550, still down significantly for the week.

The Japanese yen rose early last week on expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ), but then held steady. The moves suggest the dollar is rising against major currencies like the euro but under pressure in other markets.

Meanwhile, top US and Chinese trade officials held more than five hours of talks in Stockholm on Monday, reaching a tentative agreement to extend a 90-day tariff moratorium, pending final approval from President Donald Trump.

President Trump’s trade deals, including a 15% tariff on EU goods and a 20% tariff on Vietnam, could support the dollar by strengthening the US economic position. However, the greenback still appears weighed down by growing uncertainty in Washington, and any policy change could easily bring short-term support or another shock to the dollar.

The USD is likely to decline slightly this week if there are no strong supporting factors. However, if trade negotiations continue to bring positive signals or new economic data from the US is more positive, the USD may recover and increase slightly.

The USD is likely to depreciate slightly. Photo: cafef.vn

Domestic USD exchange rate today

In the domestic market, at the beginning of the trading session on August 4, the State Bank announced the central exchange rate of the Vietnamese Dong to the USD at 25,249 VND.

* The reference USD exchange rate at the State Bank's transaction office for buying and selling is kept at: 24,037 VND - 26,461 VND.

USD exchange rates at commercial banks are as follows: