VASEP predicts that tuna exports will struggle to break through by the end of the year.

(PLVN) - The Vietnam Association of Seafood Processing and Export (VASEP) forecasts that Vietnam's tuna exports in the last months of 2025 will struggle to achieve a breakthrough, despite signs of recovery in some markets. Factors such as declining consumer demand, high inventory levels in major markets, tariff competition pressure, and increasingly stringent traceability requirements continue to strongly impact the industry's export activities.

Báo Pháp Luật Việt Nam•20/11/2025

According to data from Vietnam Customs, tuna export turnover in the first 10 months of 2025 reached 791 million USD, a slight decrease of 4% compared to the same period in 2024.

In the EU, tuna exports in October reached nearly $15 million, up 16%. Exports to the Netherlands and Italy saw triple-digit growth, contributing to a cumulative total of nearly $175 million for the first 10 months of the year, up 4% year-on-year.

Within the CPTPP bloc, exports to Mexico and Chile in October also recorded growth of 51% and 16%, respectively. However, due to declines in previous months, cumulative exports to these two markets over the first 10 months still decreased by 4% and 29%.

Meanwhile, tuna exports to the US continued to decline in October. For the first 10 months of 2025, exports to the US reached nearly $294 million, down 8% year-on-year, but still accounting for over 37% of Vietnam's total tuna export value. Tightening consumer spending, high inventory levels, and new retaliatory tariffs are significantly impacting this market.

Exports to Canada and Japan, after a period of recovery, fell again in October, declining by 4% and 33% respectively. Exports to Israel and Russia continued to be volatile due to geopolitical conflicts and exchange rate fluctuations. In October, exports to Russia increased by 23%, while exports to Israel, although still declining, experienced a smaller drop.

Several emerging markets recorded strong growth, particularly Egypt with a 128% increase in October, reaching nearly $21 million. Exports to Egypt have consistently grown since the beginning of the year and have been among Vietnam's top 8 largest tuna import markets in the last two months.

Regarding product structure, the tuna group (HS03) decreased by nearly 1%. Within this, frozen tuna meat/loin (HS0304) increased by nearly 2%. Conversely, the processed tuna group (HS16) decreased by 7%, mainly due to weak demand in the US and the Middle East. According to VASEP, this indicates that businesses are adapting better to raw material supply and taking advantage of value-added products.

On the global market, raw tuna prices in Thailand have shown a slight decline since September 2025, creating favorable conditions for importers to sign new contracts for the fourth quarter. However, competitive pressure from Thailand, Ecuador, and Indonesia remains strong, as these countries enjoy better reciprocal tariffs and preferential treatment when exporting to the US, and more favorable treatment when exporting to the EU.

Meanwhile, Vietnam's tuna industry continues to face numerous challenges, including: unstable domestic raw material supply, heavy reliance on imports; high logistics costs and the burden of controlling IUU (illegal, unreported, and unregulated) fishing; and increasingly stringent traceability and sustainability certification requirements from high-end markets such as the EU, the US, and Japan. Therefore, VASEP forecasts that tuna exports in the last quarter of the year will likely struggle to recover.

Source: https://baophapluat.vn/vasep-du-bao-xuat-khau-ca-ngu-cuoi-nam-kho-but-pha.html