Yellow River
Vietnam has had a trade surplus for 8 consecutive years, estimated to reach 30 billion USD in 2023
The country's trade balance continues to record a trade surplus for eight consecutive years, estimated at nearly 30 billion USD, nearly three times higher than in 2022.
According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Trade , the total import-export value in 2023 is expected to reach about 683 billion USD, of which the export value is expected to be 354.5 billion USD and the import value is expected to be 328.5 billion USD. With this result, the country's trade balance continues to record a trade surplus for 8 consecutive years, estimated at nearly 30 billion USD, nearly three times higher than in 2022, contributing positively to the balance of payments, increasing foreign exchange reserves, stabilizing exchange rates and other macroeconomic indicators. Although import and export faced many difficulties throughout the year, especially in the first quarter when exports decreased significantly by 11.9% compared to the same period last year. This figure accurately reflects the difficult situation of domestic production, especially in the processing and manufacturing industry, which accounts for 85% to more than 90% of Vietnam's total export value of goods and has decreased sharply since the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023. Not only is there a decrease in demand, but many importing countries also set high requirements for sustainable development and environmentally friendly production, causing Vietnamese goods to compete fiercely with similar products from rival markets. However, in general, although the export of goods in 2023 did not reach the set target, in the last 7 months of the year, exports have recovered and grown. In particular, from July to the end of the year, the country's export turnover always reached more than 30 billion USD/month. This result is assessed as due to the continuous efforts of enterprises in maintaining production, and Vietnam still maintains its attractiveness as an investment destination. In addition, the good exploitation of free trade agreements (FTAs) also contributes significantly to maintaining exports to major markets. "Bright spot" of agricultural products A notable bright spot in the difficult picture of import and export is the agricultural sector. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development , GDP growth of the entire agricultural sector in 2023 is estimated at 3.83%, the highest in many recent years. The export turnover of agricultural, forestry and fishery products is expected to exceed 53 billion USD, achieving 96.3% of the Prime Minister's plan. The trade surplus of the entire sector in 2023 will reach more than 11 billion USD, accounting for over 42.5% of the country's trade surplus. Among agricultural export products, rice is particularly prominent with export results exceeding 7.9 million tons, worth more than 4.5 billion USD, up 11% in volume and 29% in price over the same period in 2022. This is highly appreciated and it is expected that rice exports can reach 8.2 million tons with a turnover of nearly 4.8 billion USD, reaching the highest level since 1989. In particular, Vietnamese rice is affirming its quality and dominating the demanding market. Recently, the ST25 rice variety, which won the title of the world's best rice, has enjoyed preferential tariffs when exported to the European Union (EU) market. Along with ST25, the ST24 variety also receives preferential tariffs when exported to the EU.
Before ST24 and ST25 enjoyed incentives, 9 other Vietnamese rice varieties also enjoyed tax incentives when exported to the EU, including: Jasmine 85, ST5, ST20, Nang Hoa 9, VD20, RVT, OM 4900, OM 5451 and Tai Nguyen Cho Dao. This creates a great opportunity to increase rice exports to the EU market, which has great development potential. It is also worth noting that fruit and vegetable exports are expected to reach about 5.6 billion USD, exceeding the plan at the beginning of the year by 40% and increasing by nearly 66% over the same period in 2022. Durian is one of the outstanding products, becoming the "champion" in the group of exported fruit and vegetables. The trade surplus of the agricultural sector was highly appreciated by Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development Phung Duc Tien for its importance to the overall socio -economic development and especially the agricultural sector. A strong trade surplus not only helps the economy have foreign currency to import equipment and carry out industrialization and modernization, but also creates great development opportunities. At the same time, the VND 15,000 billion support package for the forestry and fishery sector has made a positive contribution by providing financial resources for businesses, helping businesses stockpile raw materials, enhance processing processes and encourage export activities. Focusing mainly on high-demand markets such as China, Japan and South Korea, the agricultural sector is expected to achieve an export target of 53 - 54 billion USD in 2023. Acknowledging the bright spots, Dr. Le Quoc Phuong, former Deputy Director of the Center for Industry and Trade Information (Ministry of Industry and Trade), also analyzed that the trade surplus was partly due to a sharp decrease in imports and this also reflected difficulties in production, especially in the processing and assembly economy. Mr. Phuong also proposed shifting from processing industry to highly localized industry and high-tech industry to optimize trade surplus performance. At the same time, it is necessary to increase exports in areas that create high added value, such as agricultural processing to increase added value. The Ministry of Industry and Trade proposed promoting green exports to move towards a more sustainable and effective direction in the future./.
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