After many consecutive sessions of increase, bringing VN-Index to a historical peak, the Vietnamese stock market had a strong correction session on July 29. Specifically, the VN-Index closed down 64.01 points (-4.11%), down to 1,493.41 points. The total trading volume reached more than 2.77 billion units, worth up to VND71,240.8 billion - an increase of 50% in volume and 52% in value compared to yesterday's session. Negotiated transactions contributed more than 150.6 million units, equivalent to VND4,324 billion.
The correction in the stock market is not unexpected.
If this had happened in previous periods, the market might have fallen into a prolonged state of panic, with selling pressure at low prices continuing to increase in the following sessions. However, this adjustment did not cause much surprise to investors, because the warning signal had appeared before - that is, the soaring liquidity.
According to technical analysis, cash flow plays a major role in the recent increase of the index. However, new cash flow cannot flow into the market forever. When demand weakens and cannot absorb the profit-taking supply, adjustment is inevitable. This prediction was made early because the recent increase in the index was very impressive, especially in the context of the VN-Index having just experienced an overheating increase.
However, the correction session on July 29 was considered to have gone "further" than expected. On the technical chart, the VN-Index broke the short-term uptrend. This requires many stocks to re-establish a new price level before another uptrend can form - sooner or later depending on investor sentiment and the return of cash flow.
A positive factor supporting the expectation of a rebound is that current interest rates remain low. Deposit and lending rates are even lower than during the pandemic, causing "cheap" money to tend to seek investment channels such as stocks.
Kien Thiet Securities: Adjustment is necessary after a 42% increase
According to a report from Kien Thiet Securities Company, since the bottom set on April 9, the VN-Index has increased by 42% without experiencing any significant correction. Historical statistics show that in the recovery period after the bottom (like 2020-2024), impressive recoveries with an average increase of 43-45% are often followed by corrections of 7-15% before entering a new growth cycle. History does not repeat itself completely, but similar signals are becoming increasingly clear.
In the short term, technical analysts believe that the VN-Index may need to fill the "gap increase" around the 1,470 point area before establishing the next trend.
Stocks "wipe the floor", some codes still go against the trend
The sharp decline on July 29th recorded the sharpest decline in the group of securities stocks - which are very sensitive to market developments. A series of codes hit the floor such as HCM, SSI, CTS, FTS, VCI, VND, ORS, VIX, TCI, DSE, BSI... In which, VND, SSI and VIX codes are also among the most liquid on the floor, with trading volume from 97.5 million to more than 118.7 million units.
Some stocks that went against the trend still kept green such as SCR, MHC, HSL, CDC (up 4-5%). Notably, DLG, C47, ADS and PET still kept purple when closing.
Red covers HNX and UpCoM
On the HNX floor, selling pressure increased across the board, causing the HNX-Index to fall 8.43 points (-3.2%) to 255.36 points. The entire floor recorded 47 stocks increasing and 159 stocks decreasing. Trading volume reached nearly 319 million units, worth VND6,694.7 billion; negotiated transactions added 3.64 million units, equivalent to VND118.2 billion.
The rare bright spot was HUT stock, which unexpectedly increased by 9.7% to VND17,000 with liquidity of more than 10.8 million units. In contrast, CEO decreased by -10% to VND22,600, with 57.8 million units matched. SHS also decreased by 2.9% to VND19,800, with liquidity leading the HNX floor - more than 91.7 million units.
On the UpCoM floor, the UpCoM-Index could not avoid the correction wave, decreasing by 0.87 points (-0.81%) to 106.07 points. The total matched volume reached more than 143.3 million units, worth VND1,762.6 billion. Negotiated transactions reached an additional 3 million units, equivalent to VND38.6 billion.
Red dominated with the three most liquid stocks being BVB (-8.5%) down to VND14,000, ABB (-2.7%) down to VND10,800 and SBS (-3%) down to VND6,400, matching 12.3 million to 18 million units.
Illustration
Derivatives and warrants markets both fell sharply
In the derivatives market, VN30F4100 futures contract fell sharply by 72 points (-4.25%) to 1,620.8 points, with a matched volume of more than 368,000 contracts and an open volume of 56,700 units.
Warrants were also flooded with red, notably CHPG2406 - the code with the highest liquidity with more than 7.38 million units, down 19% to VND1,010/warrant.
Overall, the correction on July 29, although strong, was not outside the scenario predicted by many organizations and investors. The consensus from technical factors, the sudden increase in liquidity, and the previous overheated increase all show that the market needs a stop to reshape the price level. Cheap money is still a long-term support factor, but in the short term, caution may be a more reasonable strategy for investors.
Source: https://phunuvietnam.vn/vn-index-dieu-chinh-manh-thanh-khoan-bung-no-20250729170243605.htm
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