VPI forecasts a sharp drop in gasoline prices in the operating period tomorrow, October 9.

The Vietnam Petroleum Institute's (VPI) Machine Learning-based gasoline price forecasting model shows that, in the October 9 adjustment period, retail gasoline prices could drop sharply by 2.5-4.8% compared to the previous adjustment period, if the Ministry of Finance and Industry and Trade do not set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund.

Buying and selling gasoline at a Petrolimex gas station on Tran Hung Dao Street, Hanoi. Photo: Le Dong/VNA

According to Mr. Doan Tien Quyet, data analysis expert of VPI, the gasoline price forecasting model applying artificial neural network (ANN) model and supervised learning algorithm in VPI's machine learning forecasts that the retail price of E5 RON 92 gasoline may decrease by 706 VND (3.6%) to 18,904 VND/liter, while RON 95-III gasoline may decrease by 685 VND (3.4%) to 19,475 VND/liter.

VPI's model predicts that retail oil prices will also tend to decrease this period. Specifically, diesel prices may decrease by 2.5% to VND18,184/liter, kerosene may decrease by 3.5% to VND17,968/liter, and fuel oil may decrease by 4.8% to VND14,470/kg. VPI predicts that the Ministry of Finance and Industry and Trade will continue not to set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund this period.

In the world market, at the end of the trading session on October 7 (Vietnam time), the price of North Sea Brent crude oil futures increased by 1.46% to 65.47 USD/barrel; the price of US WTI crude oil increased by 1.33% to 61.69 USD/barrel.

Oil prices rose after a lower-than-expected output increase by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+, in November 2025, somewhat eased concerns about increased supply. However, the weak demand outlook is likely to limit the price increase in the short term. OPEC+ said on October 5 that it would increase production by 137,000 barrels per day from November, equal to the increase in October, amid lingering concerns about a possible oversupply in the market.

The modest increase comes as Venezuelan exports are rising, Kurdish flows through Türkiye have resumed, and many Middle East cargoes remain unfilled for November delivery, according to Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates.

In the short term, some experts predict that the upcoming refinery maintenance season in the Middle East will help limit the rise in oil prices. In addition, the Kirishi Refinery – one of Russia's largest facilities – had to stop operations at its key oil processing plant after a drone attack caused a fire on October 4, and the expected restoration of operations will take about a month, which will also help limit the rise in world oil prices.

In addition, the weak demand outlook in the fourth quarter is another factor that hinders the price increase. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), in the week ended September 26, US crude oil, gasoline and distillate inventories all increased more than expected as refining activity and demand declined.

Source: https://baotintuc.vn/thi-truong-tien-te/vpi-du-bao-gia-xang-dau-giam-manh-trong-ky-dieu-hanh-ngay-mai-910-20251008085723812.htm