VPI forecasts sharp drop in gasoline prices in the operating period tomorrow, October 9

Photo caption — Buying and selling gasoline at a Petrolimex gas station on Tran Hung Dao Street, Hanoi. Photo: Le Dong/TTXVN.

According to Mr. Doan Tien Quyet, a data analyst at VPI, the gasoline price forecasting model, which applies artificial neural network (ANN) and supervised learning algorithms in machine learning, predicts that the retail price of E5 RON 92 gasoline could decrease by 706 VND (3.6%) to 18,904 VND/liter, while RON 95-III gasoline could decrease by 685 VND (3.4%) to 19,475 VND/liter.

VPI's model forecasts that retail oil prices will also tend to decrease this period. Specifically, diesel prices could fall by 2.5% to 18,184 VND/liter, kerosene by 3.5% to 17,968 VND/liter, and fuel oil by 4.8% to 14,470 VND/kg. VPI predicts that the inter- ministerial committee of Finance and Industry and Trade will continue not to allocate or utilize the Fuel Price Stabilization Fund this period.

On the world market, at the close of trading on October 7th (Vietnam time), the price of Brent North Sea crude oil futures rose 1.46%, to $65.47 per barrel; the price of US WTI crude oil increased 1.33%, to $61.69 per barrel.

World oil prices rose after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+, announced a smaller-than-expected production increase in November 2025, somewhat easing concerns about increased supply. However, the prospect of weak demand is likely to limit price gains in the short term. On October 5th, OPEC+ announced it would increase production by 137,000 barrels per day from November, matching the increase from October, amid lingering concerns about potential oversupply in the market.

The modest increase comes as Venezuelan exports are rising, Kurdish flows through Türkiye have resumed, and many Middle East cargoes remain unfilled for November delivery, according to Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates.

In the short term, some experts predict that the upcoming refinery maintenance season in the Middle East will help limit the rise in oil prices. Additionally, the shutdown of a key processing unit at the Kirishi refinery – one of Russia's largest – following a drone attack that caused a fire on October 4th, with recovery expected to take about a month, will also help limit the rise in global oil prices.

Furthermore, the prospect of weak demand in the fourth quarter is another factor hindering price increases. According to the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA), in the week ending September 26, U.S. inventories of crude oil, gasoline, and distillate products all rose more sharply than expected as refining activity and demand declined.

Source: https://baotintuc.vn/thi-truong-tien-te/vpi-du-bao-gia-xang-dau-giam-manh-trong-ky-dieu-hanh-ngay-mai-910-20251008085723812.htm