Pangasius exports are projected to reach nearly $2.2 billion.

Pangasius exports are projected to reach nearly $2.2 billion in 2025, a promising result reflecting the efforts of the pangasius industry. This information was shared by Ms. To Thi Tuong Lan, Deputy General Secretary of the Vietnam Association of Seafood Processing and Export (VASEP), at the conference summarizing the pangasius industry's performance in 2025 and outlining key tasks for 2026.

Báo Tin Tức•29/12/2025

Photo caption

Processing pangasius for export at Caseamex Joint Stock Company, Tra Noc Industrial Park, Can Tho City. Photo: Thanh Liem/TTXVN

According to the Deputy Secretary General of VASEP, the most successful market for the pangasius industry in 2025 is Brazil, with a growth rate of 35% (accounting for an 8% market share in 2025).

China is a key market for the pangasius industry, but its growth has not met expectations (with a market share of approximately 27%, an increase of about 2.3%). The CPTPP market (comprising 11 countries in the Asia- Pacific region) is a bright spot for Vietnam's pangasius industry with a market share of 17% (reaching $340 million, an increase of 37%), and the growth of Mexico, Malaysia, and Japan is a highlight of this bloc.

The United States holds a 15% market share (down 3.3%), a reduction from the 20% reciprocal tariff. Europe (EU) holds approximately an 8% market share (remaining at around that level over the past three years).

Other markets such as Thailand, Egypt, and Japan are potential markets for Vietnamese pangasius exports in the future.

Regarding the product structure of pangasius in 2025, Ms. To Thi Tuong Lan stated that frozen pangasius fillets will remain the highest-valued product, accounting for 1.5-1.6 billion USD, representing approximately 98% of the total. For processed pangasius, although increasing by 13-19%, the proportion remains relatively small (about 2.4% of total export value). Frozen pangasius and whole dried pangasius are expected to reach 315-348 million USD.

Regarding the structure of pangasius products, VASEP representatives believe that the potential for value-added pangasius products in the coming years is enormous.

Identifying technical barriers and challenges for new and key markets in 2026, Ms. To Thi Tuong Lan assessed that the US market poses many difficulties for Vietnamese pangasius exporters due to the anti-dumping policies of the US Pangasius Association.

For the Chinese market, negative media coverage of Vietnamese pangasius is one of the risks to our pangasius industry. The EU market has the opportunity to benefit from upcoming disruptions in the pangasius supply chain to increase its market share from 8% to 10% as planned.

By 2026, the global supply of whitefish (including pangasius) is projected to tighten. With this trend, total global natural catches are expected to exceed 6.5 million tons (a decrease of 145,000 tons compared to 2025).

Faced with the shifting supply pressures of the European market and the price differentiation of premium whitefish, suppliers will be forced to seek alternative sources with more stable and sustainable prices. According to Ms. To Thi Tuong Lan, these factors will present opportunities for Vietnamese pangasius in 2026.

Although the EU market is projected to have great potential, it also comes with challenges: High responsibility requirements and no lowering of standards are permitted; regulations on sustainability, traceability, and emission reduction are prerequisites for any substitute product.

Therefore, if businesses can seize these opportunities and perform well, they will gain a good market share in pangasius in the coming years. To achieve this, Vietnam needs to strengthen communication and convey the message to the EU market that the solution is to ensure the sustainability of the pangasius industry at reasonable prices.

Given the forecast of a shortage of whitefish supplies next year, according to the Deputy Secretary General of VASEP, pangasius is the optimal alternative and choice for a product segment with equivalent value. Vietnam has an advantage from the EVFTA compared to other suppliers without an EVFTA with the EU. Furthermore, the pangasius farming industry has the ability to coordinate supply based on market developments, reassuring partners about the stability of the supply chain.

"However, the challenge for Europe is the increasingly stringent standards, requiring ESG (environmental, social, governance) standards," a VASEP representative noted.

Based on developments in 2025 and the scarcity of whitefish in 2026, Ms. To Thi Tuong Lan forecasts that Vietnam's pangasius export turnover in 2026 will reach approximately US$2.3 billion (a 5% increase compared to 2025).

Based on the above forecasts, VASEP representatives recommend that businesses and macroeconomic managers closely monitor developments in global fishing quotas to adjust farming plans and selling prices accordingly. They should strengthen and improve sustainability certifications (ASC, BAP, etc.) to be ready to meet market demand in 2026. They should optimize production and logistics costs to maintain a competitive advantage in the context of food inflation. They should increase breaded products, ready-to-cook products, and cut-piece products for the retail and food service segments.

In addition to VASEP's communication campaign in China and Europe, Ms. To Thi Tuong Lan also advised businesses to proactively work with legal partners to review and prepare the most thorough dossiers for trade defense in the US market. They should optimize production costs (feed, breeding stock); diversify markets, and reduce dependence on major markets (the US, China...). Furthermore, businesses should take advantage of the benefits from trade agreements (especially CPTPP and EVFTA).

At the conference, Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Environment Phung Duc Tien affirmed that the pangasius industry has become a large-scale commodity production sector with strong export potential, despite being established less than 35 years ago.

The pangasius industry is one of the key pillars that has helped the fisheries sector achieve impressive growth figures amidst a volatile global economy.

The area for pangasius farming remains stable at approximately 6,400 hectares. Pangasius production in 2025 is estimated at around 1.67 million tons. To date, the export value of pangasius has contributed approximately US$2.1 billion to the total export turnover of agricultural, forestry, and aquatic products.

Assessing the changes in the export market structure of pangasius, Deputy Minister Phung Duc Tien emphasized that the Chinese market currently accounts for over 22%, surpassing the United States (which currently holds over 20%). Thanks to the Ministry's timely response plans, the European market is experiencing strong growth, projected to reach approximately $9 billion (compared to over $5.4 billion in previous years).

To enhance competitiveness in the coming period, the leaders of the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment noted the key tasks for the future: implementing the digital transformation project in exploiting and updating the fisheries database (software, cybersecurity). Applying this throughout the entire industry, from crop farming and livestock to aquaculture, to process by-products. Applying technology and artificial intelligence to breeding, improving survival rates, optimizing feed, and enhancing economic indicators. Ensuring product traceability all the way to the table, meeting the stringent standards of hotels and international markets.