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What will happen to Vietnam's aluminum and steel exports when the US imposes a 25% tax?

Báo Đầu tưBáo Đầu tư18/02/2025

US President Donald Trump has officially signed an executive order imposing a 25% tax on steel and aluminum imported into the country. The new tax will take effect from March 4, 2025. Countries that are currently exempt from steel and aluminum tariffs will no longer have this benefit.


US President Donald Trump has officially signed an executive order imposing a 25% tax on steel and aluminum imported into the country. The new tax will take effect from March 4, 2025. Countries that are currently exempt from steel and aluminum tariffs will no longer have this benefit.

Vietnamese steel still has good export opportunities, but taxes will reduce businesses' profit margins.
Vietnamese steel still has good export opportunities, but taxes will reduce businesses' profit margins.

Mr Trump pledged the effort would help boost manufacturing and bring jobs back to the US, while warning that tariffs could be raised further.

According to official US figures, Canada and Mexico are currently the largest steel exporters to the US, followed by Brazil and South Korea...

Every year, Vietnam also exports a certain amount of aluminum and steel to the US, and this tax order, to a greater or lesser extent, will affect export activities.

Mr. Do Ngoc Hung, Commercial Counselor, Head of the Vietnam Trade Office in the US, said that currently , Vietnam's aluminum and steel products are still subject to tax rates of 10% and 25% respectively under Section 232 that the US has applied since 2018 to most countries.

Experts and securities companies all believe that the impact of Mr. Trump's tariff policy on Vietnam is not too great because exports to the US account for a small proportion and businesses have gradually diversified their markets. The most affected stock group is galvanized steel.

Vietnam’s steel and aluminum products are also frequent subjects of trade defense lawsuits. The US has investigated more than 34 cases of steel products, accounting for more than 50% of the total number of trade defense lawsuits that the US has investigated with Vietnam, and 2 cases of aluminum products.

According to US customs statistics, in 2024, Vietnam exported about 983 million USD worth of steel and steel products, an increase of nearly 159% compared to 2023; while aluminum products had a turnover of 479 million USD, an increase of 9.5%.

The head of the Vietnam Trade Office in the US said that the application of an additional 25% tax on imported aluminum and steel will negatively affect countries exporting aluminum and steel to the US. In particular, since 2018, many countries and territories have replaced China in exporting this item to the US, such as Canada, Mexico, the EU, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Brazil.

"The US applies a 25% tax on all imported goods, Vietnamese steel products still have the opportunity to continue exporting when the capacity of US steel and aluminum manufacturers cannot meet the demand immediately. However, as difficulties increase, the profit margin of enterprises will decrease," Mr. Do Ngoc Hung informed.

The consequences of imposing tariffs will affect the supply chain, as countries seek to export to other countries, including Vietnam. Many steel producers and exporters return to the domestic market, causing countries to increase protectionism, which also affects steel exporting countries like Vietnam.

According to experts, increasing tariffs may benefit the US aluminum and steel industries, but affect the overall economy due to increased import costs, while threatening to increase trade confrontation between the US and other countries.

The US currently relies on imported aluminum, mainly from Canada, Mexico, China... to meet most of its production needs. During his previous term, Mr. Trump also imposed a 25% tariff on imported steel and 10% on imported aluminum but later exempted some trading partners, including Canada and Mexico.

In response to this move, the Vietnam Trade Office in the US recommends that Vietnamese businesses assess the situation to develop appropriate business strategies, expand exports to markets that have FTAs with Vietnam, and avoid dependence on one market. At the same time, businesses need to closely coordinate with the Ministry of Industry and Trade's Trade Defense Department and diplomatic missions abroad to closely monitor the situation to respond appropriately.

In recent times, Vietnamese enterprises have diversified their export markets. For example, large-scale Vietnamese steel producers such as Hoa Phat Group have stopped exporting steel to the US and have expanded their exports to more than 10 other markets.



Source: https://baodautu.vn/xuat-khau-nhom-thep-viet-nam-se-ra-sao-khi-my-ap-thue-25-d245346.html

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