Import and export in 2025 could set a record of 900 billion USD

Total import-export turnover for the whole year of 2025 is forecast to reach a record of 900 billion USD, continuing to affirm its role as a key driving force of the economy. The Ministry of Industry and Trade said it will synchronously deploy solutions to diversify markets, promote sustainable exports, and closely monitor risks from fluctuations in international trade policies and extreme natural disasters.

Comprehensive industrial recovery

On the afternoon of October 8, the Ministry of Industry and Trade held a regular press conference for the third quarter of 2025. The Ministry's report said that the industry and trade sector continues to play an important role, contributing positively to economic growth in the third quarter and the first three quarters of the year.

Of which, industrial production recorded impressive results when the industrial production index (IIP) in the third quarter increased by 10% compared to the same period. In the first 9 months, IIP increased by 9.1%, of which processing and manufacturing - the main growth driver, reached 10.4%, the highest since the beginning of the term. Electricity production and distribution increased by 6.1%, water supply and waste treatment increased by 8.8%, while mining recovered slightly.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade held a press conference for the third quarter of 2025. Photo: Hanh Nhung

Notably, all 34/34 provinces and cities recorded IIP growth. Some key industrial localities saw strong double-digit increases such as Phu Tho (27.7%), Ninh Binh (22%), Quang Ninh (17%), Bac Ninh (15.7%) or Hai Phong (15.1%).

In the domestic trade sector, total retail sales and consumer service revenue increased by 9.5% in the first 9 months, higher than the same period in 2024. The supply of goods is abundant, prices are stable, and there is no shortage even in areas affected by natural disasters. E-commerce continues to grow by 22-23%, becoming an important consumption channel in the digital transformation process.

In particular, import and export is a big bright spot of the economy . Total import and export turnover in 9 months reached 680.6 billion USD, up 17.3% over the same period. Of which, export reached 348.74 billion USD, up 16%, far exceeding the yearly target of 12%. There were 32 items with turnover of over 1 billion USD, accounting for 93% of total exports; 7 items exceeded 10 billion USD.

On the other hand, imports in the first nine months reached nearly 332 billion USD, up 18.8%. The third quarter alone recorded imports of 119.66 billion USD, up more than 20%. The trade balance continued to have a trade surplus of 16.8 billion USD, of which the FDI sector had a trade surplus of 37 billion USD, while the domestic sector had a trade deficit of more than 20 billion USD.

If this trend is maintained, total import-export turnover in 2025 could reach 900 billion USD - the highest level ever.

Diversify markets, support businesses

Despite positive results, the Ministry of Industry and Trade warns of risks from international trade policies and extreme natural disasters. Director of the Department of Planning, Finance and Enterprise Management Bui Huy Son said that the US has just issued a decree imposing new taxes on imported wood and furniture products. From October 14, 2025, sawnwood and softwood will be taxed at 10%; kitchen cabinets, bathroom cabinets and upholstered furniture will be taxed at 25%. By January 1, 2026, the tax rate will increase to 30-50%, directly affecting Vietnam's wooden furniture exports.

In addition, some markets have temporarily stopped importing Vietnamese rice, putting pressure on the export chain. Natural disasters and climate change are also unpredictable factors, affecting production and logistics.

To achieve the growth target, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has identified four key groups of tasks: perfecting institutions, removing legal “bottlenecks”; promoting new growth drivers; handling backlog projects; and supporting manufacturing and export enterprises. The industry will focus on implementing the Government’s resolutions on growth, while stepping up inspections, preventing trade fraud and protecting consumer rights. Modern trade infrastructure will be invested, connecting e-commerce, supermarkets, traditional markets and logistics.

In the export sector, the Ministry of Industry and Trade will continue to diversify markets, closely monitor tariff policies of partners, especially the US, and support domestic enterprises to improve their capacity and reduce dependence on FDI. Trade promotion, supply-demand connection and product promotion will be strengthened to maintain traditional markets and expand new markets.

Deputy Minister Nguyen Sinh Nhat Tan emphasized that in the coming time, the Ministry will continue to create a transparent business environment, cutting at least 50% of business conditions and administrative procedures. At the same time, the Ministry will direct its affiliated units to coordinate with localities to remove difficulties, especially in implementing the two-level government model in key areas.

Source: https://daibieunhandan.vn/xuat-nhap-khau-2025-co-the-lap-ky-luc-900-ty-usd-10389649.html