Russia-Ukraine conflict: Russia prepares for a major strike.

Amidst Ukraine's escalating offensives, Russia is signaling the possibility of expanding its retaliatory military campaign this summer.

Ukrainian soldiers inspect a UAV at a location in Ukraine on May 28.

On May 25, the Russian Foreign Ministry declared the attack in Starobilsk to be "the last straw," and warned of "systematic, large-scale" attacks targeting Ukrainian decision-making centers, UAV production facilities, and military infrastructure.

Sources from Russia indicate that the country's military is increasing the deployment of missiles, UAVs, and air forces at numerous bases in western Ukraine and Crimea. Some Russian military experts believe Moscow needs to "re-establish its strategic deterrence capability" following the repeated attacks by Ukraine.

In recent statements, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also emphasized that Russia would not accept "war being brought into Russian territory" and warned that Ukraine was crossing "dangerous lines".

Reuters and CNN, citing assessments from Western officials, suggest that Russia may be preparing a new summer offensive in Donetsk and eastern Ukraine. Targets could include Pokrovsk, Konstantinovka, or other key Ukrainian supply lines. Moscow may combine large-scale ground offensives with massive airstrikes to wear down Ukrainian air defenses before expanding pressure on the battlefield.

However, Russia also faces several challenges. First, Ukraine's air defense system has been significantly strengthened by Patriot, NASAMS, and IRIS-T missiles. At the same time, Kyiv's continuous attacks are forcing Moscow to expend more resources on rear-area defense.

In the latest development, Russia's state-owned nuclear energy company Rosatom accused a Ukrainian drone of attacking the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant – Europe's largest – on May 30. However, the Ukrainian military denied this information.

3 scenarios for the upcoming Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Overall, the Russia-Ukraine conflict is entering a phase where technology, industrial production, logistics, and economic resilience play a role just as decisive as direct battlefield combat.

The most likely scenario is that the war continues in a protracted "attrition" pattern. Russia maintains its numerical and defense industrial advantage, while Ukraine relies more heavily on UAVs, long-range missiles, and electronic warfare to wear down Moscow's war capabilities.

The second scenario involves a sharp escalation during the summer. If Russia launches a large-scale air campaign and offensive, Ukraine is likely to retaliate with deeper attacks into Russian territory. This risks pushing the conflict into a more intense confrontation and increasing civilian casualties.

The third scenario is that international pressure on negotiations will increase as both sides suffer growing economic and social losses. While the prospect of peace talks remains distant, many European experts believe the war is unlikely to end entirely through military means.

It is becoming increasingly clear that the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine is changing the nature of traditional warfare. It is no longer simply a confrontation of tanks and trenches as in the early years of the conflict, but has become a comprehensive competition in technology, defense production, air defense, UAVs, and political will.

Five factors driving Ukraine's increased counterattacks against Russia show that Kyiv is choosing a strategy of asymmetric warfare to counter the opponent's numerical advantage. While Ukraine has not yet been able to create a decisive turning point, these "deep strikes" are making Moscow pay a higher price for each advance on the battlefield.

However, the reality is that both Russia and Ukraine are suffering heavy economic, military, and social losses. In the current cycle of retaliation, the risk of escalating hostilities remains, and the prospects for peace depend heavily on developments on the battlefield, the balance of international aid, and the geopolitical calculations of the major powers involved.

Source: https://baolaocai.vn/xung-dot-nga-ukraine-nga-chuan-bi-don-danh-lon-post900744.html