Hidden cash flow and fear of "margin call"

Thị trường chứng khoán đã về vùng giá hợp lý hơn sau nhiều phiên giảm mạnh - Ảnh: QUANG ĐỊNH — The stock market has returned to a more reasonable price range after many sharp declines - Photo: QUANG DINH

Talking to Tuoi Tre Online , experts said that the stock market has returned to a reasonable price range, many groups of stocks with better "discounts" will trigger a "bottom-fishing" cash flow...

However, the market is also in a weak phase, sensitive to information. If a deep decline occurs, the phenomenon of widespread liquidation will "drown" the index further...

If VN-Index continues to fall sharply, margin pressure will be greater.

* Mr. Truong Hien Phuong - Director of KIS Vietnam Securities:

- Data compiled from securities companies shows that margin debt (margin lending) is estimated to reach nearly VND 200,000 billion by the end of the first quarter of 2024.

The loan amount is equivalent to the peak in the first quarter of 2022, but it is not a cause for concern. After 2 years, securities companies have increased their capital strongly. Not to mention, many companies have sources from parent banks, so the "room" is still large.

Ông Trương Hiền Phương — Mr. Truong Hien Phuong

The concern for investors using high financial leverage is that the correction has not stopped.

Last week, VN-Index fell more than 100 points, equivalent to nearly 8%, many stocks were down 15% or more.

The recent sharp drop was partly due to the liquidation of mortgages. However, if the VN-Index continues to decline sharply, the margin pressure will be greater. If it falls even deeper, a widespread "force sell" phenomenon will appear.

However, the sharp decline will be difficult to continue next week. Because of the recent sharp decline, the valuation of the market and many groups of stocks have returned to a more reasonable level.

From there, activate the bottom-fishing cash flow. Especially good stocks with reasonable discounts will stimulate investors to participate in disbursement.

Before the market fell into the recent strong correction, the P/E valuation of VN-Index fluctuated between 15-18 times, relatively high compared to the market in the region. In the 11-13 range, I think it will attract investors again.

Stocks will soon recover

* Mr. Pham Quang Chuong, analyst at Phu Hung Securities:

- The market continued to be under pressure to correct in the last trading session of the week. However, bottom-fishing signals appeared in a series of Bluechip stocks in the afternoon session, helping the VN-Index to recover to near the reference level.

However, cash inflows remained weak and indices quickly fell back at the end of the session. Increased selling pressure also pushed liquidity above average. A rare bright spot in the last session of the week was the return of foreign investors to disburse.

Technically, VN-Index continued to have its fourth consecutive session of decline. Although this session closed slightly below MA200 (the most recent 200-day moving average), the index still maintained its demand zone of 1,160 - 1,190.

Spinning candlesticks appear (tug of war) with increasing trading volume, candlestick amplitude continues to narrow while selling pressure increases, suggesting the possibility of cash flow to catch the bottom.

Overall, the signal is still supporting the possibility of a recovery soon. The general strategy is to wait for a recovery to restructure the portfolio, the recommended weight is low - medium.

For investors holding a lot of cash and able to withstand risks, they can consider bottom fishing with a low proportion of stocks that have fallen oversold to support.

New money coming in but hard to catch large cash flow before long holiday

* Ms. Tran Thi Khanh Hien, Director of Research at MB Securities (MBS):

- After falling nearly 102 points for 4 consecutive sessions, losing many months of achievements, the market has adjusted to a more reasonable price range, negative information has also permeated, and there will be new cash flow.

However, next week the whole country will enter the April 30 and May 1 holidays. Normally, before long holidays, it is difficult to see large cash flows.

Bà Trần Thị Khánh Hiền — Mrs. Tran Thi Khanh Hien

It should be noted that the VN-Index has dropped to the 1,160 - 1,190 point range. When the market is weak, it is very "sensitive" to information, even if it is just false rumors.

In the short term, information related to developments in Middle East tensions, oil prices, forecasts about the Fed extending the time and reducing the number of interest rate cuts as well as domestic exchange rate pressure are still of interest.

Regarding exchange rates, the State Bank of Vietnam last weekend began to intervene by selling USD. This move had an immediate psychological impact on the stock market, but the specific impact still needs to be monitored in terms of scale, form and effectiveness...

In general, the exchange rate must still be controlled but should follow the general trend of the region, while balancing with other macro indicators.

TN (according to Tuoi Tre)

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