What is the red-blue illusion in the US election results?

(VTC News) - Why early vote counting results may be inaccurate, leading to a "blue illusion" or "red illusion" that creates a turning point in US presidential elections.

Experts say early vote counts in battleground states should not be used as a sign of whether Democratic candidate Kamala Harris or Republican candidate Donald Trump will win, due to different vote-counting rules and complexities in some states. In the 2020 election, some states experienced a “red mirage,” in which early vote counts showed Trump leading on election night. Soon after, a “blue shift” returned and Democrat candidate Joe Biden emerged as the winner as mail-in ballots were counted.

Ms. Kamala Harris and Mr. Donald Trump. (Photo: Reuters)

That’s one of the reasons Mr Trump has said the election was “stolen”. And the same scenario could play out this week, particularly in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Meanwhile, the opposite — a “blue mirage” — showing Ms Harris ahead, only to see a “red wave” reverse the results — could also play out, particularly in North Carolina and Georgia. Mr Trump’s campaign has said he plans to declare victory when he believes he has won the Electoral College’s 270 votes. But that could also be premature, depending on how many votes have yet to be counted and where they came from. How are swing states counted? Pennsylvania didn’t have a clear winner in 2020 until four days after Election Day, as officials left out a large number of mail-in ballots. The state is one of a handful that does not allow election workers to process or count mail ballots until 7 a.m. on Election Day. With more Democrats voting by mail than Republicans, initial results — based on in-person votes cast on Election Day — will likely show Mr. Trump leading, but his lead could narrow as more mail ballots are counted. This year, a new law requires most counties to report by midnight on election night how many mail ballots have yet to be counted, in an effort to discourage conspiracy theories.

Like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin does not allow election officials to process or count mail ballots until the morning of Election Day, which means there could be a delay in reporting results. In addition, many of the state’s largest cities ship mail ballots to a centralized location for processing and counting. That could result in a significant number of ballots being reported all at once in the early morning hours of Nov. 6. In Georgia, absentee or mail ballots, which can account for about 5% of the vote, can be processed starting two weeks before the election, although officials must wait until Election Day to begin counting them. All early ballots — in person and by mail — must be counted and reported by 8 p.m. Overseas and military ballots will be accepted up to three days after the election if they are postmarked by Nov. 5. Those are also significant. In Arizona , nearly 90% of voters cast their ballots early, mostly by mail, in 2020. Arizona election officials can begin processing and counting mail ballots once they are received, but results cannot be released until an hour after polls close. The numbers are often large—in 2022, those “early” ballots made up a fifth of all ballots cast in Maricopa County, the state’s largest county—and can take days to count.

Michigan instituted early in-person voting for the first time since the 2020 election and began allowing precincts with more than 5,000 people to begin processing and counting mail-in ballots eight days before Election Day. Smaller precincts can do so as early as Nov. 4. Officials hope the changes will allow the state to report results more quickly than in 2020, when mail-in ballots could not be processed ahead of time, creating a “red mirage” on election night. In North Carolina , election officials began processing and scanning mail-in ballots before Election Day. After the polls close, the first results reported will likely be mostly mail-in ballots and early votes. Election Day votes will be counted and reported throughout the evening. If the election is as close as polls suggest, it could take a week or more for the outcome in North Carolina to become clear. In 2020, the media called Trump the winner in North Carolina until Nov. 13, 10 days after the election. Nevada ’s slow vote count in 2020 created a lot of controversy, but officials say they have sped up the process. Most notably, counties were allowed to begin processing and counting mail ballots on Oct. 21. Additionally, workers can begin counting in-person ballots as early as 8 a.m. on Election Day, rather than waiting until polls close. But Nevada still may not see results quickly. Mail-in voting is widespread in the state, and it is the only battleground state that accepts late-arriving mail ballots. Any ballot postmarked before Nov. 5 will still be counted if it arrives within four days. These late-arriving ballots traditionally favor Democrats, so there could be a shift toward Harris as ballots are counted after Election Day.

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