The seat that could help Republicans control the US Senate

(Dan Tri) - The race for the senatorial seat representing the state of Montana is expected to decide which party wins the majority in the US Senate in the next term.

Mr. Jon Tester, Democratic Senator representing Montana (Photo: Getty).

As the 2024 US election approaches (November 5), political analysts are not only interested in the race for the White House but also closely following the race for the majority in the US Congress. Considering the Senate alone - where the Democratic Party is leading the Republican Party by only 2 seats - the Democrats will have to do their best to protect this fragile majority. However, what awaits them ahead is not very bright. In West Virginia, experts predict that voters will almost certainly elect Republican Governor Jim Justice to replace independent - but pro-Democrat - Senator Joe Manchin. In Montana, incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Tester is increasingly being left behind by his Republican opponent Tim Sheehy. Therefore, Montana is considered a decisive race for control of the Senate in the next two years. Democrats' effort Democrats are pouring more than $45 million into Tester's turnaround effort in the final weeks of the race. But they are still facing a series of questions: How much should they try to "save" Tester in a place where Trump won big in 2020? Should they open another front, attacking the seats of Republicans Ted Cruz (Texas) and Rick Scott (Florida)? Should they divert resources from Montana to other close races? So far, the answer is the same strategy. Democrats say they have not seriously discussed cutting Tester's money. "People still want Democrats to keep control of the Senate. But this is a tough one," said Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine, who said he would never run against Tester. Part of the reason for the Democrats’ decision is that Texas and Florida are not easy battlegrounds. Their large populations mean that investing in these two states would be much more expensive than Montana. It would also take more effort to campaign on a statewide scale. Meanwhile, Democratic candidates are doing relatively well in other races, leaving the party with little need to pour money into them. Observers have been talking a lot about the Ohio race. However, Senator Sherrod Brown seems likely to hold on to his seat. Central Republican leaders have poured a lot of resources into the Montana race. They have sought to ensure that Sheehy, a former aerospace engineer and Navy veteran, becomes the party’s nominee. Steve Daines, the Republican campaign manager, personally intervened to block Representative Matt Rosendale from running. Now, the Republicans’ efforts have paid off. Tester has been trailing in recent polls, with the gap sometimes as large as 8%. The race also includes the Green Party candidate, who is likely to attract Democratic votes. Republicans themselves believe the Democrats will not abandon Tester, Mike Berg, a spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said in a statement to reporters.

Republican candidate Tim Sheehy and former US President Donald Trump (Photo: Tim Sheehy/NBC News).

Changes from voters Unlike other races, the Democratic Party's switch from Mr. Biden to Ms. Harris did not affect Montana, which has a high proportion of white, rural voters, CNBC noted. Montana's Senate races are often quite difficult. In his first election in 2006, Mr. Tester defeated incumbent Senator Conrad Burns by just 3,562 votes. The next two elections were easier for him: In 2012, his vote was 7 percentage points higher than President Barack Obama's. In 2018, he won more than 50% of the vote in an election where four Democratic senators lost their seats. However, Montana has been increasingly leaning toward the Republican side, something Mr. Tester cannot control. Previously, Montanans were mainly concerned with the issues of their state and locality, which was beneficial for Mr. Tester. Now, they think more about the policies of the federal government. So even if Tester tries to distance himself from Democrats—like calling for Biden to drop out of the race early or skipping the convention in Chicago—he still has trouble being a Democrat. Trump led Biden by more than 16 percentage points in the 2020 presidential election, and Democratic Senator Gary Peters recently conceded that Trump could win by as much as 20 percentage points this year. “Republicans have a big advantage in winning back the Senate, regardless of the outcome of the election on the top ballot,” writes Jessica Taylor of the Cook Political Report .

According to CNBC, Reuters

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