Many bases for the stock market to maintain its upward momentum
Sharing at the workshop with the theme "Stock market outlook 2025 - Rebound from new expectations" - an annual workshop organized by Nhat Viet Securities (VFS), Dr. Can Van Luc noted the main risks and challenges for the Vietnamese economy . From geopolitical tensions, trade wars; private investment and consumption have not returned to pre-Covid-19 levels to the risks of the corporate bond market remaining and the real estate market recovering slowly. In addition, Mr. Luc also assessed that the foreign and economic policies of President-elect D. Trump create opportunities for Vietnam in terms of exports and attracting foreign investment but also bring challenges, especially the possibility of being subject to a 5.1% reciprocal tax, equivalent to about 4 billion USD that Vietnam must pay more.
However, according to the forecast of Dr. Can Van Luc, GDP growth in 2025 will reach 8% for the base scenario (7.09% in 2024), higher than the world and regional average. The main driving forces come from retail sales of goods and consumption recovering by 9% - 10%, export growth by 8% - 10%, and realized FDI increasing strongly by 10% - 12%. In addition, the recovery of private investment, the growth of remittances, and the promotion of public investment planning will also contribute to accelerating Vietnam's economy in 2025. With a growing economy, inflation, and exchange rates under control, and interest rates maintained at low levels, it creates the premise for the stock market to maintain its upward momentum.
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| Workshop “Stock Market Outlook 2025 - Rebound from New Expectations” |
In 2024, Vietnam's economy will remain stable thanks to an expansionary fiscal policy and flexible monetary management, despite pressure from exchange rates and geopolitical conflicts. However, the stock market has not grown as strongly as expected as liquidity gradually narrows and foreign capital is cautious. However, the VN-Index still maintains a medium-term sideways-up trend, remaining above the 1,200-point threshold waiting for a breakout opportunity.
In 2025, with a conservative corporate profit growth prospect of 14% - 15%, the VN-Index will reach the mark of 1,400 - 1,450 points. 
- Mr. Nguyen Minh Hoang - Director of Analysis, Nhat Viet Securities Joint Stock Company (VFS)Mr. Nguyen Minh Hoang - Director of Analysis of Nhat Viet Securities Joint Stock Company (VFS) believes that the stock market in 2024 will not be able to make a strong breakthrough due to many unfavorable factors, also known as "headwinds". These factors include exchange rate tensions, political fluctuations, net foreign capital flows, natural disasters, international geopolitical tensions and yield differences between investment markets...
Headwinds are hindering the market's growth momentum. However, moving into 2025, when these barriers gradually weaken, Mr. Hoang believes that the market can welcome positive growth drivers. Stock market liquidity is expected to be boosted by the upgrading process, scheduled to take place in September 2025, as well as a decrease in net selling pressure from foreign investors.
With the above motivations, Mr. Nguyen Minh Hoang predicts that VN-Index may increase to the 1,450 point area, corresponding to an expected P/E of 12 times, when the growth of after-tax profits of listed enterprises on the market may reach 14% - 16% compared to the previous year.
VFS expert points out four investment themes in 2025
Benefiting from the macro with an attractive story in 2025, accompanied by attractive market valuations when accumulating over a long period of time, profit growth of listed enterprises and cash flow into the stock market, Mr. Hoang said that there are currently important signs for the expectation of a bullish wave this year. In particular, the signal of liquidity is especially emphasized. The market's transaction value has started to increase again after continuously decreasing during the peaks and troughs of 2024 and reaching the lowest level in 5 years (VND 7,500 billion on January 9, 2025).
Sharing about the strategy of choosing investment sectors, the Director of Nhat Viet Securities Analysis pointed out four topics to pay attention to. First is the story of Vietnam's strong economic growth that can have a positive impact on the banking industry because credit growth is expected to reach a high level of 16 - 17%. Meanwhile, the liquidity of the stock market is expected to recover and maintain over 20 trillion VND, which will have a positive impact on the securities industry. The retail industry is also expected to benefit when the Government's support measures can help the economy recover, leading to a recovery in consumer demand.
Second, regarding the acceleration of public investment disbursement, investors interested in this investment topic can invest in infrastructure construction, construction materials, and real estate. Meanwhile, the investment topic surrounding the Trump 2.0 story, import and export can have a positive impact on the industrial park and logistics real estate groups. Some businesses can benefit from gaining market share from countries with high tariffs in the US market, the recovery of global market demand as well as benefiting from macro fluctuations in major markets such as China and the US and the possibility of commodity prices escalating when a trade war occurs.
Technology is a field that will receive attention from global investors in 2024. Mr. Hoang assessed that this will continue to be an investment theme this year. Currently, Vietnam is still considered an attractive and potential country for software outsourcing services and also sets high goals for this digital economic sector.
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| Potential industries by investment theme |
Sectors with high growth, attractive valuations, benefiting from the macro story and receiving cash flow will be potential industry groups. Based on the macro outlook and market developments, experts from VFS believe that real estate and public investment will be two potential stock groups in 2025, benefiting directly from the economic recovery trend and support policies from the Government.
Regarding the real estate sector, Ms. Do Hong Van - Head of Data Analysis, FiinGroup Vietnam Joint Stock Company forecasts that the real estate group's after-tax profit in 2025 may continue to recover by about 17.2% over the same period in the baseline scenario. The main driving force comes from the improvement in the supply of residential real estate, especially the mid-range segment, and the return of vibrant real estate transaction demand. With the above prospects and attractive valuation levels, this industry group has recorded signs of attracting cash flow again.
However, some risks still exist in this sector. Specifically, according to Ms. Van, real estate enterprises may face pressure from corporate bond maturity and recapitalization needs. In addition, the trend of net selling of real estate stocks by foreign investors also affects stock prices. According to Ms. Van, potential real estate stocks will focus on enterprises with clean land funds, transparent legal status and projects expected to be implemented in 2025.
Source: https://baodautu.vn/chon-danh-muc-dau-tu-2025-bon-chu-de-chien-luoc-tu-chuyen-gia-vfs-d252721.html
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