Recently, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh emphasized the country's GDP growth target of 8.3-8.5% in 2025 and 10% or more in 2026. The Prime Minister commented: This is a very difficult target and has many great challenges, but we cannot help but do it and this target is not impossible.
The Prime Minister set the national GDP growth target for 2025 at 8.3-8.5%. (Illustration photo)
Agreeing with the Prime Minister's viewpoint, Dr. Vo Tri Thanh, Director of the Institute for Brand and Competitiveness Strategy Research, also said that although this goal is high, there are still certain foundations to expect to achieve it.
First, economic growth in the first half of the year exceeded 7.5%, approaching the 8% mark. Cyclically, the second half of the year will be a time to continue maintaining higher growth momentum.
Second, public investment reached more than VND268,100 billion in the first half of the year, a sharp increase over the same period in both absolute and proportional terms, showing a clear change in implementation. Public investment is becoming the main driving force for economic growth in the context of many sectors still facing difficulties. Many key projects such as highways, airports, and beltways are currently being accelerated, even reaching the finish line early.
However, public investment disbursement has only reached more than 30% of the set target. Meanwhile, to achieve the growth target of over 8%, the Prime Minister has requested 100% of public investment capital to be disbursed effectively.
Citing data from the General Statistics Office, Mr. Thanh said that every 1% of public investment capital disbursed will help GDP increase by about 0.06 percentage points.
“In particular, well-implemented projects not only bring direct efficiency but also create great spillover effects on the entire economy, from strengthening the confidence of the private sector, attracting FDI to improving Vietnam's investment and business environment,” Mr. Thanh stated.
Economist Dr. Nguyen Minh Phong also assessed that Vietnam's growth is positive, despite the recent difficulties. "From now until the end of the year, we still have opportunities for economic growth, notably the digital economy. In 2024, the digital economy will grow by 20%. Therefore, strong investment in this field is worth expecting," Dr. Nguyen Minh Phong stated his opinion.
Mr. Phong also agreed that the second basis for growth potential is active public investment. However, from now until the end of the year, it is necessary to accelerate further to achieve expected growth.
Mr. Phong further analyzed that it is necessary to accelerate credit for the private sector to develop this sector. In addition, it is necessary to continue to open up FTA agreements and use tax competitiveness as a driving force.
“Another notable potential is that the newly merged localities, with large areas, will have better development potential, contributing to promoting the overall economy of the whole country,” Dr. Nguyen Minh Phong expressed.
How to turn potential into reality?
Dr. Le Duy Binh, Director of Economica Vietnam, believes that from now until the end of the year, domestic consumption demand will grow strongly, contributing to promoting the domestic market. However, we also need specific solutions to stimulate domestic consumption by increasing people's disposable income.
In addition, another important resource that will contribute positively to GDP growth is private investment. "When private investment grows strongly in 2025, the GDP growth target of 8.5% can be achieved. Therefore, it is necessary to remove difficulties in projects to stimulate the development of this sector," said Mr. Binh.
Many foundations for Vietnam to achieve the GDP growth target of 8.5% in 2025. (Photo: Government Newspaper).
Dr. Nguyen Minh Phong said that to achieve the growth target of 8.3 - 8.5% this year, Vietnam needs to synchronously implement four main pillars: export, investment, consumption and macroeconomic stability.
First of all, in the context of global trade uncertainties and rising protectionism, merchandise exports need to continue to maintain growth momentum, with a minimum increase of 10%. At the same time, service exports also need to be promoted more strongly to reduce the service trade deficit - a long-standing weakness of the economy.
Regarding investment, in addition to the goal of disbursing 100% of public investment capital, special attention should be paid to improving project quality, thereby increasing exploitation efficiency.
Regarding consumption, he suggested that the Government should have a separate project to stimulate domestic consumption. In the immediate future, it is possible to implement some specific measures such as speeding up the payment of subsidies for officials who retire early or transfer jobs, in order to promote tourism activities. At the same time, there should be policies to encourage people to prioritize the use of domestic goods.
“These measures not only help improve aggregate demand but also support the business community to overcome the difficult export period,” Mr. Phong stated.
In addition to direct solutions to supply and demand, Mr. Phong also noted the need to maintain macroeconomic stability and control inflation within the range of 4-4.5%.
Experts also emphasized the growing role of the private sector in infrastructure investment. In particular, the amendment of a series of laws such as the Law on Public Investment, the Law on Investment under the public-private partnership model; the Law on Science and Technology... have created a more favorable legal corridor, helping private enterprises to be ready to take on tasks in key projects such as high-speed railways, North-South expressways, airports, ports...
“If progress and quality are ensured, the private economic sector can become a new pillar of economic growth in the medium and long term,” Mr. Phong expected.
Source: https://vtcnews.vn/chuyen-gia-con-du-dia-de-viet-nam-dat-muc-tieu-tang-truong-8-5-ar955530.html
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