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| Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh delivered a speech at the Conference to review the work in 2023 and deploy tasks in 2024 of the Government and local authorities. (Source: Investment Newspaper) |
Economy 2023: Continued recovery, many bright spots
At the Conference to review the work of 2023 and deploy tasks for 2024 of the Government and local authorities, held last weekend, opinions were unanimous that Vietnam's economy is continuing to recover, achieving many important and positive results.
Sending a report to the Conference, the Ministry of Planning and Investment assessed that Vietnam's economy continues to be a bright spot in the global economic picture, with GDP growth each quarter higher than the previous quarter, reaching 5.05% for the whole year, and the economic scale reaching about 430 billion USD.
A series of other macroeconomic indicators have also been cited by the Ministry of Planning and Investment to demonstrate the more positive trend of the economy. For example, the average Consumer Price Index was controlled at 3.25%; state budget revenue exceeded the estimate by 8.12%; total import-export turnover for the whole year reached 683 billion USD, trade surplus of about 28 billion USD... Disbursement of public investment capital is expected to reach 95% of the plan (in 2022 it is 91.42%), with the absolute figure reaching nearly 676,000 billion VND, the highest ever, about 146,000 billion VND higher than in 2022.
In particular, foreign investment attraction reached over 36.6 billion USD, an increase of 32.1% compared to 2022; disbursement reached nearly 23.2 billion USD, the highest ever. This shows that Vietnam is still an attractive destination for foreign investors...
Speaking at the Conference as an economic expert, Mr. Can Van Luc also emphasized the recovery of the Vietnamese economy. Not only is the GDP growth in the following quarter higher than the previous quarter, but the growth rate of 5.05% for the whole year is also higher than the average growth rate of the world (2.9%) and higher than the average rate of the ASEAN region (4.3%).
In fact, the localities are the ones that are most "feeling" the economic recovery. Chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City People's Committee Phan Van Mai excitedly said that from a growth rate of only 0.7% in the first quarter, Ho Chi Minh City's GRDP growth increased to 9.62% in the fourth quarter, bringing the whole year of 2023 to 5.81%, contributing to the goal of stopping the overall growth decline of the whole country.
“This result is thanks to the fact that in 2023, we focused on implementing many solutions to promote growth, such as promoting consumption and investment, starting many important projects, including Ring Road 3, and actively implementing Resolution No. 98/2023/QH15 of the National Assembly on special mechanisms for Ho Chi Minh City,” said Mr. Mai.
Mr. Le Anh Duong, Chairman of Bac Giang Provincial People's Committee also shared: "We are very pleased that the local GRDP growth has reached 13.45% in 2023".
Bac Giang is the leading locality in the country in terms of GRDP growth. With this result, the average GRDP growth of Bac Giang in the past 3 years has reached over 14%, achieving the target set by the Provincial Party Congress.
Mr. Cao Tuong Huy, Chairman of the People's Committee of Quang Ninh province, said that in 2023, the province's GRDP increased by 11.02%, 0.74 percentage points higher than last year. This is the 9th consecutive year that the locality has had double-digit growth.
“Provinces and centrally-run cities have strived to overcome difficulties, fully exploited their potential strengths, outstanding opportunities, and competitive advantages, and achieved quite comprehensive results, contributing to the overall achievements of the whole country,” Deputy Prime Minister Le Minh Khai commented.
According to the General Statistics Office, in 2023, 59 localities nationwide recorded positive growth and 4 localities recorded negative growth. Of which, 7 provinces and cities had double-digit GRDP growth.
What is the scenario for the economy in 2024?
The economy has recovered positively in 2023. However, the low growth rate of 5.05% nationwide and the negative growth rate in 4 localities show that the economy still faces great difficulties and challenges.
Speaking at the Conference to review 2023 and deploy tasks for 2024 of the Government and local authorities, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh emphasized that the situation in 2024 is difficult and may be even more difficult than in 2023.
The Ministry of Planning and Investment also pointed out that although the opportunities and advantages are not small, when growth drivers such as export, consumption, and investment all tend to be more positive and have better growth opportunities in 2024, the challenges are also very large. That is when unfavorable developments in the world and the region will continue to strongly impact production - business activities, industrial production, import and export, and investment attraction in Vietnam.
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| Vietnam's economy has a solid foundation and strategic momentum to continue growing in 2024. (Source: Vietnam Insider) |
“There are still many factors of ‘risk, uncertainty, and caution’ in 2024. The world economy will continue to move sideways, even growing lower than in 2023; inflation will decrease, but will still be high, interest rates will also remain high; risks to food security, energy security, and even the supply chain are still large, affecting Vietnam’s investment, consumption, and exports,” Mr. Can Van Luc worried.
The question is, what scenario will Vietnam's economy follow in 2024?
Although not yet officially "finalized", in the Draft Resolution No. 01 of the Government, the economic scenario for 2024 has been outlined. Accordingly, in order to achieve GDP growth of 6 - 6.5% for the whole year, GDP growth in the first quarter of 2024 must reach 5.26 - 5.69%. In the second quarter, the figure is 5.8 - 6.29%, so that in 6 months, growth of 5.54 - 6% can be achieved.
In the third quarter, GDP growth must reach a higher level, 6.24 - 6.77%; for the first 9 months, it must reach 5.78 - 6.27%. The fourth quarter of 2024 will be the quarter that plays a decisive role in economic growth rate, therefore, the number that must be achieved is 6.55 - 7.09%.
Looking at these indicators, it can be seen that this is a big challenge. Because in 2023, the economy did not follow the script, due to unpredictable developments in the global economy, causing GDP growth in the quarters to be 3.41%; 4.25%; 5.47%; and 6.72% respectively. In 2024, the uncertain and unpredictable factor is still there. If just one major change, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict or the Israel-Hamas conflict continues to escalate, the global economy, including Vietnam, will be significantly affected.
Therefore, anticipating difficulties and being proactive in all situations to have timely policy responses will be important for the Vietnamese economy to continue to steadily overcome difficulties.
Sharing about the important highlights of Vietnam's economy in 2023, Deputy Prime Minister Le Minh Khai mentioned the Government's efforts in management. "The Government has focused on leading and directing the recovery and development of the socio-economy, quickly turning around the situation, changing the status; promoting administrative procedure reform, digital transformation, improving the investment and business environment...", Deputy Prime Minister Le Minh Khai said.
With those efforts, the Vietnamese economy has overcome the "headwinds" of the global economy to achieve positive results in 2023. Mr. Can Van Luc also mentioned this. Citing Vietnam's timely policy response, Mr. Luc said that the monetary policy reversal from the end of the first quarter of 2023, shifting from certainty to flexibility, easing, caution, reducing interest rates, allowing debt restructuring; combined with the implementation of an expansionary fiscal policy, continuing to maintain post-Covid-19 support policies... has actively supported the recovery of the economy.
Implementing "5 resolutions" to promote economic growth
2024 is a pivotal year for the implementation of the 5-year Socio-Economic Development Plan 2021 - 2025. This will also be the year when the economy "breaks through to the finish line". Therefore, the Government has determined the management goal for the coming year as "Discipline, responsibility, proactiveness, acceleration of innovation, sustainable efficiency".
In this management motto, in addition to the issue of “discipline and responsibility”, the story of “proactivity and timeliness” is especially emphasized. “In 2024, we must both carry out regular tasks with higher requirements and larger targets than in 2023; resolve backlogs that have lasted for many years and many terms, and long-standing bottlenecks in policies and implementation; and respond quickly to new issues and developments that may arise that cannot be fully predicted,” Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh also said.
The tasks set are heavy. The 2024 plan targets, including economic growth of 6 - 6.5%; the average Consumer Price Index controlled at 4 - 4.5%, continue to put heavy pressure on the Government's macro management. Therefore, to complete the set tasks and goals, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh has requested ministries, branches and localities to carry out the set tasks and solutions with the spirit of "5 determinations".
That is, determination to remove difficulties, overcome all challenges in all fields; determination to do not say no, not say difficult, not say yes but do not do; determination to protect cadres who dare to think, dare to do for the common good, think honestly, speak honestly, do honestly, effectively, so that people can benefit truly; determination to remove difficulties, promote production and business, ensure that people and businesses enjoy the regimes, policies and achievements; and determination to strive to achieve the best results in 2024.
“Understanding that the situation in 2024 will still have many difficulties, with the possibility of repeating the growth scenario of the first quarter of 2023, we are preparing to implement solutions to promote investment and consumption right from the beginning of the year,” said Mr. Phan Van Mai.
The Chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City People's Committee said that in 2024, the City aims to achieve a growth rate of 7.5 - 8%, focusing on implementing digital transformation and digital economic solutions, completing planning early, and focusing on removing difficulties for production, business and investment.
Meanwhile, Bac Giang province has set a growth target of 14.5% in 2024 and will continue to implement solutions to promote economic growth. As a locality emerging as a “magnet” for attracting investment, Bac Giang wants to have more land to open new industrial parks to welcome investors. “Currently, our industrial parks are full,” said Mr. Duong.
(according to Investment Newspaper)
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