Roll call of challenges when Russian gas stops flowing through Ukraine, will a supply crisis occur?

The European Union (EU) aims to ban imports of Russian fuel by 2027. However, according to Rystad Energy, in 2023, nearly half of Russia's pipeline gas supplies to Europe and Moldova will still pass through Ukraine, totaling 13.7 billion cubic meters.

A natural gas storage facility in Bierwang, Germany. (Source: AP)

The five-year gas transit deal between Russia and Ukraine is set to expire at the end of 2024, raising concerns about future flows of the gas.

Rystad Energy, an independent energy research firm based in Oslo, Norway, predicts that Russian gas will need to be shipped to Europe via alternative routes, and an additional 7.2 billion ^cubic meters of liquefied natural gas (LNG) per year will be needed to replace gas transiting Ukraine.

The supply crunch could come sooner than expected, Austrian company OMV warned in May.

Slovakia, Austria and Moldova are the most gas-dependent European countries, importing around 3.2, 5.7 and 2 billion ^m3 respectively in 2023.

Last year, Moscow gas via Kiev reached EU countries via terminals in Slovakia and Moldova.

Moldova is currently adjusting its supplies and has agreed with Ukraine on continuous supplies of Russian gas until the end of 2025.

In 2023, Moldova imported 74% of its gas via Ukraine.

Italian and Hungarian energy companies Eni also import Russian gas via Ukraine, while Slovenia and Croatia are smaller customers buying gas via this route.

Blocking the Russian gas pipeline through Ukraine would have a significant impact on countries that depend on these volumes.

For example, when the Russia-Ukraine gas transit agreement expires, Moldova will need to reroute 2 billion ^cubic meters of gas.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/diem-danh-thach-thuc-khi-khi-dot-nga-ngung-chay-qua-ukraine-khung-hoang-nguon-cung-se-xay-ra-279238.html