Orders increase, seafood exports in the fourth quarter may reach 2.4 billion USD

According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), in the first 9 months of this year, Vietnam's seafood exports reached 6.6 billion USD, down 22.6% compared to the same period last year. Exports decreased sharply in the first half of the year (-27%), from June, the negative growth gradually narrowed, in September alone, export turnover was only 5% lower than the same period.

Therefore, the total seafood export turnover in the third quarter was only 12% lower than in the third quarter of 2022 - also the smallest decrease in the first 3 quarters of the year.

The overall export picture shows that in the first 9 months of this year, the main products including shrimp, pangasius, and tuna all had a sharper decrease in export sales than other species. Of which, pangasius exports decreased the most (-31%), shrimp decreased by 26%, and tuna decreased by 24%. Meanwhile, squid, octopus, crab, and shellfish decreased by 10-18%, while other marine fish were only 8% lower than the same period in 2022.

The three main products including shrimp, pangasius, and tuna all showed positive signs in the third quarter, with the highest export turnover and the lowest negative growth rate since the beginning of the year. After a 28% decrease in the second quarter, shrimp exports in the third quarter were only 13% lower than the same period last year. Meanwhile, pangasius sales were 12% lower and tuna sales were down nearly 8%, compared to -41% and -31% respectively in the second quarter.

Exports of other marine fish products showed the opposite trend: the sharpest decline in the third quarter (-15%), after increasing by 2% in the first quarter and decreasing by 9% in the second quarter. Lack of raw materials and difficulties related to IUU control may be among the reasons making seafood exports more difficult.

The most positive signal is that crab and crab products (mainly crab) have had a remarkable increase in export turnover in the third quarter, more than 1.5 times higher than the second quarter and up 2% compared to the same period last year.

Seafood exports to major consumer markets such as the US, EU, China, and South Korea all decreased by 17-34%, while exports to Japan decreased less (-13%). Among major market blocs, the Middle East has been considered an attractive destination for Vietnamese enterprises in the past 2 years, due to fluctuations in war, inflation, and energy price crisis. In the third quarter, this market bloc alone had positive growth in seafood imports from Vietnam, at 2% compared to the same period in 2022, and the cumulative decline in the first 9 months of the year was also the lowest, down 8%. The ASEAN and CPTPP market blocs decreased by 15% and 20% respectively compared to the same period.

The export results of aquatic products in the third quarter have improved compared to the first months of the year, but there has not been a strong breakthrough to see a stable trend in the coming time, because the comparison level in the first half of 2022 was at a low level, after a high increase in the first half of 2022.

The recovery of seafood export sales in the coming time depends largely on two main markets: the US and China. Both of these markets have shown positive signs in terms of demand. Orders from these two markets are increasing again, but export prices are still lower than the same period last year. For example, the average export price of frozen pangasius fillets to the US market in the first 9 months of this year has been continuously 25-40% lower than the same period in 2022. In addition to other white fish species such as cod, pollock, and tilapia, pangasius exports to the US must compete with inventory from 2022. Experts predict that at least until 2024, the recovery opportunity will be more manageable, when inventory pressure is no longer great.

For the Chinese market, not only Vietnam, but many other exporting countries are also looking forward to a stable recovery after Covid, especially after the holidays this fall - a time when Chinese demand usually increases. Because many sources of supply target this market, the purchasing prices of Chinese importers are low. However, this is still a potential destination for Vietnamese exporters, especially after China banned seafood imports from Japan.

With the gradual recovery of markets, it is forecasted that seafood exports in the fourth quarter could bring in about 2.4 billion USD, equivalent to the same period last year, bringing the export turnover for the whole year of 2023 to 9 billion USD, 17% lower than in 2022.

Source