Inflation is projected to be higher in 2024 than in the previous year.

DNVN - Economic experts believe that many unpredictable variables will continue to put pressure on inflation from now until the end of the year. Inflation in 2024 is forecast to be higher than in 2023.

According to data from the General Statistics Office, the consumer price index (CPI) in April increased by 0.07% compared to the previous month. On average, for the first four months of 2024, the CPI increased by 3.93% compared to the same period last year.

In the April CPI increase of 0.07%, eight groups of goods and services saw price increases, while three groups experienced price decreases. Among the eight groups with price increases, transportation saw the highest increase at 1.95% (contributing 0.19 percentage points to the overall CPI increase). This high increase was mainly due to a 4.78% rise in domestic gasoline prices and a 2.01% increase in diesel prices.

The good news is that among the three groups of goods and services with declining price indices, the education group decreased by as much as 2.93% compared to the previous month, contributing to a 0.18 percentage point reduction in the overall CPI. Within that group, educational services decreased by 3.32%.

Forecasts indicate that essential raw materials, goods, and consumer services will put pressure on the CPI from now until the end of the year.

The main reason is that on December 31, 2023, the Government issued Decree No. 97/2023/ND-CP amending and supplementing a number of articles of Decree No. 81/2021/ND-CP, requiring localities to maintain stable tuition fees from the 2023-2024 school year.

According to the Ministry of Finance, the commodity market has been relatively stable since the beginning of the year. However, the increase in domestic gasoline and diesel prices, following world prices, has directly impacted inflation, albeit not significantly, but it is still a factor that needs to be considered.

Forecasts indicate that from now until the end of the year, essential raw materials, goods, and consumer services will put pressure on overall prices. In particular, fuel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate unpredictably.

According to economist Ngo Tri Long, in recent times, regulatory agencies have done a good job of forecasting and developing effective scenarios for price management. Thanks to experience in price management, this is the 10th consecutive year that inflation has been controlled according to the National Assembly's target.

The Ministry of Finance has projected three price management scenarios from now until the end of the year. In the highest-risk scenario, the average CPI for 2024 is projected to increase by approximately 4.5% compared to 2023. Assuming that the CPI in the remaining months increases at the same rate compared to the previous month, then in the remaining nine months of 2024, the CPI each month still has room to increase by about 0.26% - 0.39% to ensure the target of controlling average inflation in 2024 within the range of 4% - 4.5%.

Economist Can Van Luc, a member of the National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council, predicts that inflation in 2024 will be higher than in 2023. While last year's inflation reached 3.25%, this year's inflation is expected to be controlled at around 3.5-4%. However, this is not a cause for concern, as inflation, despite rising, remains under control and below 4%.

The inflation forecast for this year is below 4%, based on a better economic recovery leading to a faster money turnover. This is coupled with rising wages and increases in the prices of some essential goods, but global food prices remain very low.

Ha Anh

Source: https://doanhnghiepvn.vn/kinh-te/du-bao-lam-phat-nam-2024-se-cao-hon-nam-truoc/20240510110105127