Coffee prices fell sharply across the board

Illustration photo.

At the end of the trading week, the industrial raw materials group recorded overwhelming selling pressure with 6 out of 9 items simultaneously decreasing in price. Of which, the price of Arabica coffee lost 4.5% during the week, falling to 8,224 USD/ton; at the same time, the price of Robusta coffee also decreased by more than 1% to 4,480 USD/ton.

According to MXV, pressure is mounting on the coffee market as investors receive positive news in trade negotiations between the US and Brazil, along with positive signals from coffee production in Vietnam - the world's second largest coffee producer and leader in Robusta.

Last Monday, a phone call between US President Donald Trump and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva raised expectations that Washington could consider lifting the 50% tariff on imported goods from Brazil, thereby putting direct pressure on the coffee market.

In an interview with a local radio station, Lula said he was “surprised by the positive outcome of the conversation,” adding that Brazil had asked the US to consider removing tariffs on its exports. In addition, the Brazilian Foreign Minister and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio are said to be planning a meeting in Washington, following their recent phone call.

In Vietnam, according to a field survey by Sucafina, coffee output in the 2025-2026 crop year is expected to reach about 29.65 million bags, up 8.3% over the previous crop year. Of which, Robusta coffee is estimated to reach about 28.34 million bags, up 7.4% over the same period last year, while Arabica coffee is estimated to reach 1.3 million bags, equivalent to an increase of about 31.3%.

The 2025-2026 crop year in the Central Highlands has begun. According to local people, the harvest will begin in some areas in the next 15-20 days and will enter the main harvest period around mid-November.

Therefore, the domestic and export coffee trading situation is still quite quiet with low trading volume and large warehouses are cautious in purchasing. Domestic coffee prices on October 11 remained at 112,000-113,000 VND/kg, down 3,000 VND/kg compared to the same period last week. Regarding exports, during the period from October 1-7, the volume of exported coffee beans reached more than 12,000 tons, including Robusta and Arabica, a slight increase of 0.8% compared to the previous week, equivalent to a turnover value of about 62 million USD. The FOB export price of Robusta coffee fluctuated from 3,396 to 6,520 USD/ton.

In terms of weather, the climate in Brazil remains generally favorable in most coffee growing regions, with rainfall forecast to increase in the coming days, providing much-needed moisture after the dry winter period. According to meteorological forecasts, rains are expected to continue in the coming week, supporting the flowering and establishment of the 2026-2027 Brazilian coffee crop. In this context, preliminary forecasts for the new Brazilian coffee crop are expected to appear on the market soon.

Meanwhile in Vietnam, the Central Highlands region has seen scattered rainfall in some areas, but it has not significantly affected coffee plants. Local people are actively taking care of their crops in the final stages before harvest to ensure the best yield and quality.

Source: https://vtv.vn/gia-ca-phe-dong-loat-giam-manh-100251013143009936.htm