Domestic coffee prices increase sharply, global exports remain on an upward trend

Global coffee exports in December 2023 rose 13.6% year-on-year to 12.2 million bags, bringing total coffee exports in the first three months of the current crop year 2023-2024 to 32.4 million bags, up 6.8% year-on-year, the ICO said.

World coffee prices have increased for two consecutive days this weekend, making up for the three days of decline at the beginning of the week. World coffee futures prices are increasing along with commodity prices in general, as the DXY index increased sharply during the week, making most commodities traded in USD more expensive. Arabica coffee prices benefited from this trend, in addition to the continued limited supply of robusta, after the ICE-Europe inventory report fell to a record low at the end of the week.

Low inventories and weaker-than-expected selling from Vietnam after the long Lunar New Year holiday also contributed to the strong increase in robusta.

According to TG&VN, at the end of this week's trading session (February 16), the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London continued to increase, with the delivery date for March 2024 increasing by 26 USD, trading at 3,231 USD/ton. The delivery date for May 2024 increased by 33 USD, trading at 3,141 USD/ton. Trading volume was low. The price of arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US New York increased, with the delivery date for March 2024 increasing by 1.55 Cents, trading at 190.85 Cents/lb. Meanwhile, the delivery date for May 2024 increased by 1.55 Cents, trading at 186.70 Cents/lb. Average trading volume.

Giá cà phê hôm nay 20/11/2023: Giá cà phê

Domestic coffee prices on February 17 increased by 1,400 - 1,500 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities.

The pressure of the first day of announcement (FND) has prompted funds and speculators to continue liquidating to balance their existing net positions. The weakening DXY index has pushed the Real exchange rate higher, while current US economic indicators are confirming the Fed's hawkish stance that will only cut interest rates in the middle of this year. Meanwhile, terrorist attacks on shipping routes through the Red Sea continue to contribute to increased demand for Brazilian Conilon robusta. Robusta coffee inventories certified and monitored by the London Exchange, as of February 16, continued to decrease by 5,050 tons, or 20.09% compared to the previous week, down to 20,090 tons (about 334,833 bags, 60 kg bags), a new record low, which will continue to support robusta coffee prices in the short term, in the context of global robusta supply still being blocked and price resistance still occurring in the domestic markets of many major producing countries.

Domestic coffee prices on February 17 increased by 1,400 - 1,500 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities.

Average price	Medium
USD/VND exchange rate	24,310	+ 70
DAK LAK	80,200	+ 1,400
LAM DONG79	79,500	+ 1,500
GIA LAI	80,100	+ 1,400
DAK NONG	80,600	+ 1,400

Unit: VND/kg. (Source: Giacaphe.com)

According to ICO data, green coffee exports reached a record of nearly 10.9 million bags in December, up 12.6% year-on-year. The recent increase in green coffee exports largely reflects normal production conditions after a year of decline.

Thus, total global green coffee exports in the first 3 months of the 2023-2024 crop year reached 29.2 million bags, up 6.8% over the same period last crop year.

Brazilian green arabica coffee exports rose 15% in December and 7.4% in the first three months of the current crop year, totaling nearly 11 million bags. The strong growth was driven by a 19.3% increase in arabica coffee exports from Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer and exporter, to 3.2 million bags in December 2023 compared to 2.7 million bags in the same period last year.

Colombian Arabica exports also recorded a 7.9% growth in December and increased by 14.3% in the first three months of the 2023-24 crop year to 3.2 million bags.

Other Arabica shipments followed, rising 19.9% in December and 10.5% in the first three months of 2023/24 to 4.1 million bags. The region’s double-digit growth was largely driven by Peru and Mexico, which increased their exports by 48.3% and 75% in December, respectively.

Production conditions in Peru have returned to normal in the 2023-24 coffee crop year after a decline in the previous crop year, while production in Mexico is also relatively favorable.

Notably, green robusta coffee exports increased 9.8% year-on-year to nearly 4.7 million bags in December. This was the largest December export volume ever, surpassing the previous record of 4.2 million bags set in 2022.

However, an 8.8% decline at the start of 2023-24 has resulted in total robusta exports from October to December 2023 increasing by only 2.9%, to 10.9 million bags.

The main driver of this growth came from Brazil, the South American country that shipped more than 0.5 million bags of robusta to the international market in December, a surge of 806.2% compared to the same period in 2022.

Not only green coffee, instant coffee exports also increased sharply by 25.7% to 1.24 million bags in December. Since the beginning of the crop year, more than 3 million bags of instant coffee have been exported worldwide, up 8.2% over the same period last crop year.

The share of instant coffee in total coffee exports was 9.3%, up slightly from 9.2% in the same period of the 2022-23 crop year. Brazil, the largest exporter of instant coffee, shipped 0.35 million bags to the international market in December.

Roasted coffee exports alone continued to decline by 15% in December and after the first 3 months of the 2023-2024 crop year, they reached only 0.17 million bags, down from 0.19 million bags in the same period last year.

Baoquocte.vn

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