The world gold market last week was little changed, many economic news releases did not have a strong impact on gold prices. The US consumer price index in September 2024 did not increase as expected. The number of unemployment claims increased to 258,000 in the week ending October 5, compared to the estimate of 230,000.

The market is waiting for the next reports on the US economy to predict the possibility of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates next month. Investors estimate that the probability of the Fed cutting by 25 basis points at the meeting in November is 80% and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is about 20%. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback's movements against six major currencies (EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK, CHF), stood at 102.89 points.

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World gold price chart. Photo: Kitco

In a recent interview with Kitco News, Chantelle Schieven, head of research at Capitalight Research, said that a slower pace of interest rate cuts could continue to weigh on gold in the near term. However, geopolitical uncertainty continues to support the precious metal.

Geopolitical uncertainty is a major factor behind the nearly 30% rise in gold prices this year, Schieven noted. Rising geopolitical tensions could push gold prices up another 10% due to safe-haven demand.

At the end of the week, the world gold price traded at 2,656 USD/ounce. The December 2024 gold futures price traded at 2,674 USD/ounce.

In the domestic market , the price of 9999 gold bars at SJC is 82.5 million VND/tael (buy) and 84.5 million VND/tael (sell). Doji listed it at 82.5 million VND/tael (buy) and 84.5 million VND/tael (sell).

SJC listed the price of gold rings of type 1-5 at only 81.6-83 million VND/tael (buy - sell). Doji posted the price of gold rings of type 1-5 at only 82.55-83.45 million VND/tael.

Gold Price Forecast

In the short term, geopolitical factors have a big impact on gold prices, said Naeem Aslam, chief investment officer at Zaye Capital Markets. Increased safe-haven demand could push gold prices towards the $2,800/ounce target. In the absence of geopolitical tensions, gold prices could stabilize at $2,500/ounce.

Chantelle Schieven said that the price of gold has been impressive over the past year, but that it is only the beginning of a new bull cycle. If the conflict in the Middle East escalates, he predicted that the price of gold could rise to $3,000 an ounce before the end of the year.