The Brexit journey: Lessons from history

On March 29th, eight years ago, Britain triggered Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, officially beginning the two-year negotiation process to leave the European Union (EU), also known as Brexit, marking the first time in EU history that a member state decided to "leave".

Protesters demonstrating against Brexit stand outside Parliament in London, England, on July 18, 2018. (Source: AFP)

In 1973, the UK joined the European Economic Community (EEC), established in 1957 under the Treaty of Rome. The EEC was created to promote economic integration among European nations, laying the foundation for the later European Union (EU), with the main goal of creating a common market and free movement of goods, services, capital, and labor among its members. However, the UK has always been cautious about the EEC and later the EC, particularly regarding deep involvement in European integration policies.

As a result, two years after joining the EEC, the UK held a referendum on whether to remain or leave and received the support of 67% of the population for remaining a member of the community.

Nevertheless, the UK maintained its distance from the EU, as evidenced by its refusal to join the Eurozone in 1992. Then, in 2015-2016, under political pressure, the government of then-British Prime Minister David Cameron (2010-2016) committed to holding a referendum on EU membership.

Determined to get a "divorce"

The main reasons leading to Brexit include concerns about sovereignty, immigration issues, economic factors, and media influence. In 2016, The New York Times cited an analysis by American economist Paul Krugman, who argued that some British citizens felt the EU was interfering too deeply in internal policy, undermining national sovereignty. According to him, Brexit was not just an economic decision but also a political one, as many citizens wanted to regain their self-determination on important issues such as immigration and law.

Meanwhile, according to former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, Brexit was largely the result of long-standing dissatisfaction with the economy, as many regions felt they were not benefiting from globalization.

Media campaigns, particularly from pro-Brexit newspapers like The Daily Telegraph and The Sun, contributed to increased public skepticism towards the EU. Brexit supporters argued that Britain contributed too much to the EU budget without receiving commensurate benefits.

In 2016, Boris Johnson, then Mayor of London and later Prime Minister of the UK (2019-2022), led the Brexit campaign with the statement: “Britain sends £350 million a week to the EU. If we leave, that money can be used for the national health system.” This slogan quickly became the core message of the Brexit campaign, although it was later rejected by many economic experts and auditing bodies such as the Institute for Financial Studies (IFS) and the UK National Audit Office (NAO) for not taking into account the money the EU would reimburse Britain.

Former UK Independence Party (UKIP) leader Nigel Farage – one of the key figures in the Brexit campaign – asserted that leaving the EU was an opportunity for Britain to regain control and escape the constraints of the bloc's regulations. The Brexit campaign, strongly promoted by politicians like Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage, was themed "Take Back Control."

On June 23, 2016, the Brexit referendum took place with a close result: 51.9% of the population supported leaving the EU while 48.1% wanted to remain. Following this result, Prime Minister David Cameron, who had strived to keep Britain in the EU, resigned and handed over the position to the then-leader of the Conservative Party, Theresa May.

On March 29, 2017, Prime Minister May triggered Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, the clause that governs the process by which a member state leaves the EU. Once triggered, that country has two years to negotiate the terms of its departure from the EU, unless all remaining member states agree to an extension. This formed the legal basis for the UK to initiate the Brexit process, marking a major turning point in the history of UK-EU relations.

However, the Brexit negotiations between 2017 and 2019 faced numerous obstacles. The talks dragged on with many deadlocks due to disagreements between the UK and the EU over the "backstop" clause, aimed at avoiding a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, as well as how to maintain trade relations between the two sides after the UK leaves the EU.

Despite her efforts to reach an agreement with the EU, Prime Minister Theresa May failed to get the Brexit deal passed in Parliament, leading to her forced resignation in 2019. London Mayor Boris Johnson took over and continued to push the process forward.

On January 31, 2020, the UK officially left the EU, beginning a transition period marked by arduous negotiations on a post-Brexit trade agreement, including issues related to fishing rights and competition policy. On December 24, 2020, an agreement was reached, effective January 1, 2021, and from this point onwards, the UK was considered to have truly "separated."

"Warmth and coldness" after Brexit

Brexit was a political and economic event with a tremendous impact on both the UK and Europe. Although the UK and the EU officially ended their ties many years ago, its repercussions still linger, posing numerous challenges for London in adapting to its new position.

“We need a stronger relationship with the EU to overcome the economic damage and create new opportunities for growth for Britain.” – British Prime Minister Keir Starmer

At the moment Britain officially "broke away," then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson emphasized that the country would be "an open, generous, outward-looking, internationalist and free-trade nation." Since then, no longer bound by EU regulations, Britain has sought its own trade cooperation opportunities, signing a series of free trade agreements with Australia, Singapore, Japan, and others. Last February, during a meeting with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Washington, US President Donald Trump announced that the two sides were negotiating a bilateral post-Brexit trade agreement.

However, on March 23, the Independent newspaper, citing the latest aggregated figures from the British House of Commons library, reported that Brexit is causing significant losses for British businesses, amounting to approximately £37 billion per year due to declining trade with the EU, contrary to predictions that the damage from Brexit would end after five years.

British Trade Minister Douglas Alexander said that between September 2023 and September 2024, trade between the UK and the EU fell by 5% compared to 2018, after accounting for inflation and excluding precious metals. Alexander criticized the previous Conservative government's Brexit deal as the cause of this significant loss, stating that "it's clear that the deal didn't work."

For the EU, the departure of the UK – one of the continent's largest economies, a major financial center, and a leading military power – has deprived the bloc of a "strong piece" economically, politically, and in terms of security. Economically, Brexit has cost the EU one of its strongest trading partners, weakening the bloc's overall strength.

Politically and in terms of security, the UK's departure from the EU's common defense policy has forced Europe to further strengthen its defense capabilities and intra-bloc cooperation to counter global threats, terrorism, and instability. According to Belgian expert Federico Santopinto from the EU Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), Brexit has weakened Europe's defense capabilities, particularly in military operations in Africa and the Middle East, where the UK once played a significant role.

Although the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) remains a cornerstone of regional security, Brexit has weakened coordination between the UK and the EU on defense, cybersecurity, and counterterrorism issues. According to a report by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), this separation has disrupted intelligence-sharing and security cooperation mechanisms, negatively impacting the ability to address common threats.

Faced with these challenges, the EU is compelled to reform in order to strengthen its internal position, avoid disintegration, and maintain its place in the new world order. According to Professor Anand Menon of King's College London, Brexit has become a "painful lesson" for both the UK and the EU, and has prompted the EU to accelerate the process of deeper integration to ensure its future stability.

Whether Brexit was the right decision remains a contentious question in the UK and internationally. However, against the backdrop of increasing security instability in Europe, with the conflict in Ukraine and, in particular, the recent US trade war with major trading partners, current British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is seeking to foster closer ties with the EU. He emphasizes the need for improved economic and trade cooperation between the UK and the EU to reduce trade barriers, strengthen supply chains, and enhance the competitiveness of British businesses. He also calls for deeper cooperation in areas such as defense and security, scientific research, and education, to ensure the UK's position in a volatile world.

After nearly 50 years of Britain's integration into the EU, marked by ups and downs, skepticism, and setbacks, and in an increasingly unstable world, both sides are striving to reshape their positions in the post-Brexit era.

According to the article "UK-EU Relations and European Security" published on the UK Parliament's website in October 2024, many Britons support closer ties with the EU in certain areas if the benefits are clear, while some experts identify cooperation on security issues as a promising starting point for building a relationship. Perhaps they recognize that cooperation is one of the key elements in ensuring the security, economic growth, and global standing of both the UK and the EU.