Pepper, a Vietnamese spice, is expected to increase in price to 200,000 VND/kg, why are farmers still so scared?

Although it has just entered the 2024-2025 harvest season, pepper prices in Vietnam have increased to more than 160,000 VND/kg. This is the highest price in many years, promising to bring high profits to pepper growers as well as billions of USD to export businesses.

Pepper prices remain high, export businesses are favorable

According to Dan Viet reporters, today's pepper prices in the domestic market fluctuated from 157,000 - 159,000 VND/kg. In the world market, pepper prices on February 28 were stable, in which the price of Lampung black pepper in Indonesia remained at 7,318 USD/ton. Meanwhile, the price of Muntok white pepper remained at 10,074 USD/ton.

The price of Kuching ASTA black pepper from Malaysia is at 9,500 USD/ton; while the price of ASTA white pepper from this country is at 12,000 USD/ton. In Brazil, the price of ASTA 570 black pepper is trading at 6,850 USD/ton.

In Vietnam, the export price of 500g/l black pepper is trading at 6,900 USD/ton; and 550g/l is at 7,100 USD/ton. Similarly, the export price of white pepper is at 9,900 USD/ton.

Compared to the domestic pepper price at the end of December 2023 which was only 82,000 - 83,000 VND/kg, the current domestic pepper price has increased to 75,000 - 76,000 VND/kg.

According to information from the Vietnam Pepper and Spices Association (VPSA), in the first 18 days of February 2025, Vietnam successfully exported 7,535 tons of pepper, with a total turnover of 51.5 million USD.

In which, Phuc Sinh Joint Stock Company is the top 1 exporting enterprise with an output of 912 tons of pepper, followed by Olam Vietnam with 906 tons and Nedspice Vietnam with 850 tons.

Gia Lai Pepper Association said that with an average dry pepper yield of about 2.2 tons/ha, each hectare of pepper can currently bring in revenue of up to 330 million VND, bringing in profits exceeding 200 million VND/ha for farmers. Photo: TL

Vietnam has continued to maintain its position as the world's number 1 pepper exporter for over 20 years, accounting for 60% of the global export market share. In 2024, our country will export 230,000 tons of pepper with a turnover of about 1.3 billion USD.

Regarding the export market, the United States is the largest consumer market of Vietnamese pepper in 2024 and the first months of 2025. In 2024, this country consumed 72,311 tons of Vietnamese pepper, accounting for 28.9% and an increase of 33.2% compared to 2023.

Next are the markets: UAE 16,391 tons, up 35.1%, accounting for 6.5%; Germany 14,580 tons, up 58.2%, accounting for 5.8%; Netherlands 10,745 tons, up 35.2%, accounting for 4.3%; India 10,617 tons, down 17.1%, accounting for 4.2%. China's pepper imports ranked 6th, reaching 10,549 tons, down 82.4% and accounting for 4.2% of the market share.

According to Phuc Sinh Joint Stock Company, the pepper export output of this unit in 2024 reached 22,293 tons, accounting for 8.9% of pepper export output, up 41.1% compared to 2023 despite many fluctuations in the international market. In particular, this enterprise strongly exported pepper and coffee to Europe, Germany, Japan, and Middle Eastern countries thanks to taking advantage of tariff incentives and high demand for products with sustainable certification and deep processing.

According to VPSA statistics, there are currently about 200 pepper processing and trading enterprises nationwide. Of these, the top 15 exporting enterprises account for 70% of the country's export output. The entire industry has 14 deep processing factories, including 5 foreign-invested enterprises, accounting for nearly 30% of the export market share.

Gia Lai farmers harvest pepper. Photo: Hoang Loc

Global output drops, farmers still "afraid" to return to pepper growing

The Vietnam Pepper and Spices Association (VPSA) forecasts that global pepper output will continue to decline in 2025, while consumption demand remains stable. This opens up a "golden" opportunity for Vietnam's pepper exports this year, creating a strong driving force to promote industry development.

In the “capital” of pepper Chu Se (Gia Lai province), the area of ​​the plant once known as “black gold” is now only over 1,000 hectares. Most of the pepper area is now intercropped with coffee gardens or grown in a pure area with shade trees.

Meanwhile, Mr. Nguyen Kim Anh - Head of the Department of Agriculture and Rural Development of Dak Doa district said: The pepper area in the whole district has decreased by more than 1,000 hectares compared to before and now only about 2,000 hectares. However, pepper is still one of the main crops of the locality.

Speaking to PV Dan Viet, Mr. Hoang Phuoc Binh, Vice President of Gia Lai Pepper Association said: "I just surveyed some key pepper growing provinces, consulting with many farmers in 6 provinces of the Central Highlands and Southeast. Through assessment in the gardens, this year's pepper output decreased by about 10 - 15%, especially in Dak Lak province, it decreased a lot because coffee and durian trees gradually overwhelmed the pepper gardens.

Similarly, the pepper growing area in Dong Nai and Binh Phuoc provinces has also decreased significantly. I talked to some pepper dealers in Binh Phuoc and they said that they are buying pepper roots to sell to China for medicine and food seasoning.

In Dak Nong province alone, Mr. Binh said, half of the pepper acreage in the east, along Highway 14, had a good harvest, but the other half in the west had a bad harvest. Most of the other provinces also had reduced pepper output. Combined with the nearly depleted inventory, this year's pepper output will be lower than last year.

"The reason I can confirm this is because in the past 4 years, there has been almost no new pepper growing area in Vietnam. From 2018 to the end of 2022, no one dared to grow pepper anymore, even destroying it. From 2023 until now, only a few households have started to replant, very few people grow large pepper areas. With this area, it will take another 4 years to have additional output.

In addition, the areas planted before 2017 have some old pepper gardens, so the output will decrease more and more" - Mr. Hoang Phuoc Binh said.

Therefore, Mr. Binh believes that, on the part of pepper farmers, people should learn and understand the market to have a plan to calculate for pepper gardens and the amount of pepper harvested. Currently, coffee and durian trees are giving very attractive income, in which durian trees, if done well, can earn billions of VND/ha after deducting costs; coffee 300-400 million VND/ha is normal. As for pepper, it is very difficult to earn such profit.

"The psychology of many farmers that I consulted is that they are still afraid to return to growing pepper. Firstly, they are attracted by the high profits from durian and coffee trees. Secondly, in the 2000s, when pepper prices dropped to 30,000 VND/kg, many areas were replaced by coffee or durian, so it is very difficult to develop pepper trees on a large scale and quickly like the previous cycle. Thirdly, the majority of pepper industry workers today are elderly. Fourthly, if anyone wants to grow pepper in the future, they have to be self-sufficient in terms of capital, it is very difficult to get support from bank loans" - Mr. Hoang Phuoc Binh analyzed.

Because it is the main harvest season and pepper prices are high, farmers in Gia Lai are focusing on harvesting and drying pepper. Photo: TH

According to Mr. Binh, when the pepper industry was in crisis, pepper prices dropped to rock bottom, many people went bankrupt because of pepper and banks were overdue and could not recover their loans. "Therefore, some banks said they would not be able to lend money for pepper cultivation in the coming period," Mr. Binh said.

With the above data, Mr. Binh believes that pepper prices will enter a new peak period. "Domestic pepper prices may increase by over 200,000 VND/kg, even returning to the previous peak of 250,000 VND/kg. With the current price, pepper growers have high profits. This is a condition for people to continue investing in production according to clean, sustainable organic standards to increase the value of pepper" - Mr. Binh shared.

With the current pepper export price having increased by 68% compared to the same period last year, VPSA believes that pepper exports in 2025 will be very favorable, forecast to reach a new record value, most likely setting a record mark of 1.5 billion USD.

Source: https://danviet.vn/hat-tieu-loai-gia-vi-cua-viet-nam-du-bao-gia-tang-len-200000-dong-kg-sao-nong-dan-van-so-lam-20250228113505541.htm