In more than 3 months, Robusta coffee prices have increased by nearly 50% compared to the end of 2023

At the end of last week's trading session, the price of Robusta coffee in London for May 2024 delivery increased by 57 USD/ton, at 3,900 USD/ton, and for July 2024 delivery increased by 62 USD/ton, at 3,852 USD/ton.

Arabica coffee prices for May 2024 delivery increased by 4.3 cents/lb, to 224.65 cents/lb, and for July 2024 delivery increased by 3.1 cents/lb, to 220.45 cents/lb.

Last week, Robusta coffee futures for May delivery increased by a total of 156 USD. Arabica coffee futures for May delivery increased by 12.15 cents. Domestic coffee prices continued to increase by an average of 7,000 VND/kg.

The price of Robusta coffee beans in the Central Highlands last weekend once again set a new record, with some places having a purchase price of up to 112,000 VND/kg.

Domestic coffee prices last week reached a historic level of VND110,000/kg amid a shortage of goods. Currently, the lowest transaction price is recorded in Lam Dong - VND109,700/kg and the highest in Dak Lak - VND110,600/kg.

Hơn 3 tháng, giá cà phê Robusta đã tăng gần 50% so với cuối năm 2023

In just over 3 months, Robusta prices have increased by nearly 50% compared to the end of 2023, while Arabica prices have increased by approximately 20%.

According to the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA), domestic coffee prices have increased but supplies have gradually depleted, and inventories of businesses and farmers are not high, so export volume from now until the end of the season (September 2024) will decrease.

Statistics from the General Department of Vietnam Customs show that our country's coffee exports have shown signs of decline since March 2024 when the output was only about 185,281 tons, reaching a turnover of about 680.86 million USD, down 11.9% in volume despite an increase of 41.1% in value over the same period last year thanks to increased prices.

In the first three months of the year, Vietnam exported about 579,449 tons of coffee, with an export turnover of about 1.93 billion USD - an increase of 4.9% in volume and 57.3% in value over the same period last year.

The two leading enterprises exporting green coffee beans, Vinh Hiep Company Limited ( Gia Lai province) and Dak Lak 2/9 Import-Export Company Limited (Simexco Daklak), both said that the amount of goods in stock will only be enough to sell until about May and June 2024, and cannot last until the new harvest.

According to experts, coffee supply will continue to face challenges in the next crop year (2024/2025) as the area is forecast to decrease from 700,000 hectares to 600,000 hectares.

Concerns about coffee crop yields in Brazil and Vietnam continue to fuel futures buying by funds. Weather conditions are not looking good for the coffee crop going forward. Forecasts from the US Weather Service show a 60% chance of La Nina conditions developing in August and continuing for the rest of the year.

The La Nina weather pattern often follows El Nino and brings heavy rains to areas previously affected by El Nino droughts. If La Nina occurs, it is a cooling phenomenon that typically brings drier weather to parts of the southern American continent and excessive rainfall in equatorial regions that can affect countries along the Pacific Rim – which is not good for the global coffee market.

Concerns about the coffee crop in Brazil and Vietnam are driving the funds’ buying of coffee futures, experts say. The ongoing drought and hot weather are more serious than the 1994 crop failure in Brazil caused by frost, because the current extreme weather is widespread and affects many producing countries.

Typically, the price of Robusta coffee, the mainstay of India's coffee exports and a key ingredient in making instant coffee, rose to an all-time high of Rs 10,080 per 50 kg bag late last week (ie about VND 60,500/kg).

Previously, Robusta coffee in India had maintained a relatively stable price of Rs 2,500 to Rs 3,500 per 50 kg bag for nearly 15 years (ie about VND 15,000 to 21,000/kg).

In just over 3 months, Robusta prices have increased by nearly 50% compared to the end of 2023, while Arabica has increased by approximately 20%. The market may liquidate strongly this week, when coffee prices on both exchanges are at their peak, but there was a sell-off at the end of the week.

Source