HSBC raises its growth forecast for Vietnam to 7%.

Following third-quarter GDP exceeding forecasts despite the impact of Typhoon Yagi , HSBC raised its growth forecast for Vietnam from 6.5% to 7%.

HSBC's latest report adjusts its full-year growth forecast for Vietnam after the General Statistics Office announced a 7.4% increase in Q3 GDP, despite the impact of Typhoon Yagi. According to the bank, this result is "stronger than expected," exceeding their forecast of 6.2%.

Thus, HSBC's forecast is currently the highest among international organizations and is equivalent to Vietnam's target of 6.5-7%. Previously, many financial institutions continued to maintain or even raise their growth forecasts for Vietnam after Typhoon Yagi.

Specifically, the ADB maintained its forecast of 6%. The World Bank (WB) expects a rate of 6.1%. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and UOB both raised their forecasts to new levels of 6.1% and 6.4%, respectively.

According to HSBC, after a challenging 2023 and the first quarter of 2024, Vietnam has once again become a growth star in Southeast Asia. This result is driven by growing manufacturing, a continued export recovery, and a broader expansion across various sectors, from electronics to textiles and footwear.

Although Super Typhoon Yagi may have contributed to a drag on September export growth, the impact is not expected to be long-lasting. Manufacturing business sentiment remains positive regarding future prospects due to strong underlying demand.

Vietnam continues to attract foreign investment as its fundamentals remain positive. Although new registered FDI growth slowed in the third quarter, sectors such as real estate and energy both saw increased investment.

In the future, capital flows into manufacturing are likely to remain stable following the visit of General Secretary and President To Lam to the US, according to HSBC. Along with this, ongoing efforts to strengthen relations with international partners will also create favorable conditions for attracting more investment, such as Vietnam and France recently upgrading their relationship to a comprehensive strategic partnership.

Regarding inflation, price pressures are no longer as intense as before, although further monitoring of the prolonged impact of Typhoon Yagi is needed. With falling global energy prices and a reversal in the global monetary policy cycle, HSBC forecasts full-year inflation at 3.6%, below the State Bank's target ceiling of 4.5%. At the same time, the policy interest rate is likely to remain at its current level of 4.5%.

Source: https://baoquangninh.vn/hsbc-nang-du-bao-tang-truong-viet-nam-len-7-3323726.html