The global economy faces three major risks

Kinh tế toàn cầu đối mặt 3 rủi ro lớn- Ảnh 1. — The global economy faces three major risks

Although the global economy, especially the US, has shown surprising resilience in the face of the biggest tariff hike since the 1930s thanks to strong consumer spending and companies accepting thinner profits, this stability is considered unsustainable, especially when President Donald Trump's threat to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods from November 1 has raised fears of a new shock.

Experts warn that the full impact of tariffs has yet to be felt. Stephen Jen, CEO of Eurizon SLJ Capital, said it could take six to eight quarters for the tariff shock to hurt consumption and push US economic growth to near zero, based on past import price shocks.

The World Trade Organization (WTO) forecasts global merchandise trade growth will reach just 0.5% in 2026, down sharply from 2.4% this year, reflecting the lagging impact of tariffs.

Global public debt at record high

Meanwhile, soaring public debt burdens in both advanced and emerging economies are expected to be a key topic of discussion in Washington. According to the Institute of International Finance (IIF), global debt increased by more than $21 trillion in the first half of the year to a record high of nearly $338 trillion, a rise comparable to the pandemic period.

The rapid and massive rise of AI also poses risks. Indeed, the rapid growth of AI has boosted the stock market, helping the S&P 500 index rise 32% since April and the US gross domestic product (GDP) grow at its fastest pace in nearly two years.

Meanwhile, according to VNA, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that the current valuation of technology stocks is approaching the level of 25 years ago (referring to the dot-com bubble that burst in 2000, when shares of technology companies, internet businesses with .com domain names collapsed due to over-inflation).

She warned that if there was a sharp correction, tighter financial conditions could drag down global growth, expose vulnerabilities and cause particular hardship for developing countries.

Economists say it remains to be seen whether the boom in AI investment will actually lead to sustainable improvements in productivity and growth over the long term.

In addition to the above three risks, the global economy also recorded other signs of weakness such as US recruitment growth being weaker than expected, US manufacturing employment falling for four consecutive months, while China's manufacturing activity declined for the sixth consecutive month and Germany's economy - Europe's largest - declined significantly more than initially estimated in the second quarter./.

Updated October 13, 2025

Source: https://laichau.gov.vn/tin-tuc-su-kien/chuyen-de/tin-trong-nuoc/kinh-te-toan-cau-doi-mat-3-rui-ro-lon.html