Short-term investors can consider taking profits.

Stock Market Perspective Week 25-30/3: Short-term investors can consider taking profits

In terms of inertia, cash flow can continue to surpass the short-term peak of 1,280 points. This is the time when Fomo cash flow is expected to be pushed to a high level.

The stock market last week moved with a wide range and strong liquidity, VN-Index approached the strong resistance zone around 1,280 points.

Despite experiencing a very volatile first session of the week when it dropped nearly 50 points in the session from the price range of 1,270 points to 1,220 points, then recovered to the 1,240 point area with a record liquidity of nearly 48,000 billion VND. In the remaining trading sessions, VN-Index recovered strongly, increasing in price to surpass the 2023 peak area of 1,245 points, 1,255 points, and surpassing the highest price peak area 2 weeks ago around 1,275 points.

At the end of the week, VN-Index increased by 1.43% to 1,281.80 points and began to approach the price range around 1,295 points, corresponding to the highest price in August 2022.

During the week, liquidity on HoSE reached VND 151,877.51 billion, a sharp increase of 20.4% compared to the previous week. This was a trading week with record liquidity, averaging more than VND 30,000 billion/session, with a trading volume of more than 1.1 billion shares/session, only behind the highest trading week in history on November 19, 2021.

Foreign investors increased net selling quite dramatically with a value of 3,177.47 billion VND on HoSE; net buying on HNX with a value of 90.65 billion VND.

Positive sentiment spread across most industry groups. Especially in the banking, real estate, and steel - galvanized steel groups, all increased well. More specifically, banks were the driving force leading the market to recover after a sharp decline, surpassing the peak of 2023, with good liquidity, notably TCB (+8.45%), VIB (+7.56%), MBB (+5.25%), BID (+3.83%)..., in addition to NAB (-2.13%), ABB (-1.22%), SSB (-1.11%)...

Real estate stocks were also the main driving force last week when many stocks increased sharply, surpassing the most recent peak price, liquidity was very volatile, notably HPX (+37.18%), DIG (+12.11%), PDR (+12.10%), TCH (+12.03%), DXG (+8.47%)..., in addition to stocks under adjustment pressure VRC (-12.33%), IJC (-3.98%), KOS (-3.78%), HD6 (-3.17%)... Industrial park and rubber real estate stocks were more strongly differentiated, except for D2D (+17.50%), KBC (+6.25%), PHR (+4.40%)... which increased positively, the majority were under quite strong adjustment pressure after a period of price increase that outperformed the general market such as DTD (-5.48%), TIP (-4.63%), GVR (-3.90%), SZC (-3.78%)...

The market received many important information this week such as: The US Federal Reserve (Fed) kept the interest rate at 5.25% -5.5%, expected to cut 0.25% 3 times this year; The Bank of England decided to keep the interest rate at 5.25%; The Bank of Japan raised interest rates for the first time since 2007, ending the only negative interest rate policy in the world ; The Swiss National Bank decided to cut interest rates. This is the first major central bank in the world to cut interest rates in 9 years.

Domestic information, (1) The State Bank continued to withdraw a net 15,000 billion VND through the treasury bill channel in the session on March 21, raising the total scale to 145,000 billion VND, (2) BIDV and Vietcombank offered individual shares to foreign investors.

Notable data last week was that import and export in the first half of March 2024 recovered in many industries and the cumulative growth from the beginning of the year to date also recorded double-digit growth.

The State Securities Commission sought opinions from units, organizations and individuals on the draft amendment and supplement to a number of articles of Circular No. 120/2020/TTBTC dated December 31, 2020; The State Securities Commission has sought opinions from members on the regulation that foreign institutional investors can trade without depositing 100% of the money. If approved and implemented in the near future, this regulation will remove one of the two bottlenecks in the process of upgrading the market according to FTSE regulations: pre-transaction deposit requirement (prefunding) and foreign ownership limit (room). Along with the recent trial run of the KRX system by HoSE, it can be seen that management agencies are very active in solving problems to upgrade the market in 2025 as the Government's target.

Back to the market developments next week, the market will likely have some fluctuations before continuing the uptrend.

From a technical analysis perspective, DSC Securities Company believes that in the short term, the general index will exceed the accumulation box with an indecisive candlestick pattern. However, looking at the spread of the market, it can be seen that the market still has room for short-term increases when many groups of stocks agree to break through the short-term peak. After successfully overcoming the 1,280-point barrier, market liquidity is expected to continue to increase strongly . Groups with beta to the market and good liquidity buffers in recent sessions are prioritized for short-term trading (real estate group).

At the end of the weekly candle, a large amplitude reverse candlestick pattern shows a signal to actively shake off short-term positions, short-term cash flow is assessed as superior, the market is expected to continue to open a new short-term uptrend.

The recent increase in points is quite surprising when the trading platform 2 weeks ago recorded 6 large distribution sessions. In terms of inertia, the cash flow can continue to surpass the short-term peak of 1,280 points. This is the time when the Fomo cash flow is expected to be pushed to a high level. And with a trading platform that was assessed as having a distribution formed before, the bull-trap scenario is entirely possible. DSC still maintains its upward momentum up to the present time, which is somewhat unbalanced, the index can pull up quickly but the decline can also be correspondingly fast.

In conclusion, the short-term cash flow is maintained, allowing investors to return to short-term trading (10-15 sessions). However, there is not enough basis to assess that the index has overcome distribution pressure, as well as the previous technical divergence signal. Investors should prioritize keeping the proportion at an average level, or actively surf short-term as recommended.

Experts say that short-term investors can consider taking profits from a portion of stocks when they have good returns, and the portfolio structure should focus on stocks in a positive uptrend (for example, stocks focused on large-cap stocks and industry leaders).

For investors with a high cash ratio, they can disburse to explore steel and real estate stocks, prioritizing stocks that have not increased much in price and have good buying zones such as HDG (29-29.4), HPG (29-30)...

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