Zelensky's bold statements and the 'center of it all'

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has made a series of foreign trips in recent weeks to shore up diplomatic support for Kiev's fight to push back Russian troops.

Last week, Mr Zelensky traveled to the Red Sea city of Jeddah to attend an Arab League summit and try to find broader support beyond his Western partners.

The Ukrainian leader’s visit was unannounced and came as a surprise to analysts, but he came at the invitation of his host country, Saudi Arabia. Both Zelensky and Riyadh had good reasons for sending and receiving the invitations.

Since Russia launched its military campaign in Ukraine 15 months ago, Kiev has failed to gain significant support from Arab states, which have largely remained neutral. Saudi Arabia and other oil-producing Gulf states have maintained friendly ties with the Kremlin.

Although most Arab governments voted to condemn Moscow's military campaign at the United Nations (UN), these countries, like much of the Global South, have generally avoided taking sides.

Most members of the Arab League have called for a diplomatic solution to the conflict, and none have taken any action against Russia, such as economic sanctions – which could see them designated as “unfriendly states” by Moscow.

Many Arab officials also see the war as a European crisis that must be resolved by Western nations and Russia. For Saudi Arabia and other Arab nations, the conflicts and turmoil in their own world—such as those in Sudan, Syria, Yemen, Libya, Israel and Palestine—are of far greater concern than the conflict in the far-flung Eastern European country.

Bold statements

In a letter to the Arab Summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Moscow “traditionally attaches great importance to the development of friendly relations and constructive partnership with the countries of the Middle East and North Africa,” including members of the Arab League.

President Zelensky, in his live speech at the event, accused some members of the organization of deciding to “turn a blind eye” to Russia’s war in Ukraine, and expressed his belief that “we can all unite to save people from the cages of Russian prisons.”

“I am here to give people an honest look, no matter how the Russians try to influence it,” the Ukrainian leader said.

Mr. Zelensky also promised a higher level of cooperation between his country and the Arab world in the future. For many years, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and other Gulf states have maintained important relations with Ukraine in many areas, such as wheat imports, energy, non-oil trade and tourism.

This year, Saudi Arabia announced $400 million in aid to Ukraine, including $300 million in oil derivatives. Zelensky took the opportunity to thank Riyadh for its role in arranging a political prisoner exchange with Russia last September. The Ukrainian head of state also invited Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) to visit Kiev.

World - Mr. Zelensky's bold statements and the — President Volodymyr Zelensky visits Ukrainian marines on the front line, May 23, 2023. Photo: Kyiv Independent

“Independent Arab commentators were impressed by the Ukrainian president’s bold statements, especially when he called on Arabs to reflect on their relations with Russia,” Joseph A Kéchichian, a senior fellow at the King Faisal Center for Islamic Studies in the capital Riyadh, told Al Jazeera.

However, some commentators on social media were also quick to criticize Mr Zelensky for not mentioning Palestine in his speech at the Arab League Summit.

It is unclear whether Mr. Zelensky’s speech will change any Arab country’s stance on the conflict in Ukraine. But some experts feel uncertain given the geopolitical realities of a more multipolar world, in which Riyadh and other Arab capitals increasingly value their expanding partnership with Moscow.

“I think for Zelensky, this is actually a great opportunity to try to highlight Ukraine’s ongoing struggle against Russian interference,” said Caroline Rose, senior analyst and head of the Power Vacuum Program at the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, a nonprofit, nonpartisan think tank in Washington, DC.

“Whether that will be successful or not, I am not sure, especially given Saudi Arabia's recent tendency to align with other powers outside the West, especially with China and Russia,” the expert said.

“The heart of it all”

As for why Riyadh is hosting the Ukrainian leader at an important event in the Arab world, experts say it is aimed at preventing Western criticism of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states.

OPEC’s crude production cuts have sent oil prices soaring, and the group’s cooperation with Saudi Arabia-led Russia has drawn sharp criticism from Washington, with some US officials accusing Riyadh of helping to fund Russia’s war against Ukraine.

President Zelensky's address to the Arab League should also be understood as part of an effort by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Saudi Arabia to reinforce the argument that Arab states are balancing between Moscow and Kiev.

Speaking at the conference on May 19, Crown Prince MBS, the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia, reiterated his offer to mediate between Ukraine and Russia. “We reaffirm the Kingdom’s readiness to continue its mediation efforts between Russia and Ukraine and to support all international efforts aimed at resolving the crisis politically in a way that contributes to achieving security,” he said.

In addition, the presence of the Ukrainian President in Jeddah is also related to the Syrian factor, experts say.

“Inviting Mr. Zelensky helped to mitigate some of the other controversial elements of the Arab Summit, such as the invitation to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, which is of course extremely sensitive in the context of normalizing relations,” commented Ms. Rose of the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy (USA).

Citing human rights violations and the lack of a political solution to the conflict in Syria, the West has voiced opposition to Arab governments resuming ties with al-Assad's regime.

Under the leadership of Crown Prince MBS, Saudi Arabia has become increasingly interested in establishing Riyadh as the leader of the Arab world and a serious diplomatic player on the international stage.

By entering a new era of détente with Iran – once its arch-enemy – and moving towards a peace deal with the Houthi rebels in Yemen and reconciliation with the Syrian government, Saudi Arabia has opted for more diplomacy and less confrontation in the leading Sunni Muslim kingdom’s foreign policy.

Riyadh has also played a leading diplomatic role in the conflict in Sudan that erupted last month.

Saudi Arabia's powerful crown prince, after a period of relative international isolation over his alleged involvement in the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, Turkey, in 2018, began returning to the global stage last year.

The situation in Ukraine has allowed the Saudi leader to emphasize Riyadh's role in helping European countries deal with their energy challenges by sending more crude to those countries.

In the process, Crown Prince MBS has gained a significantly higher level of credibility, reflected in his increasingly assertive foreign policy decisions at the regional and international levels. The extent to which Crown Prince MBS has been forging closer ties with Washington’s top geopolitical rivals – China and Russia – while taking steps to bring Syria back into the Arab fold are testaments to this assertive foreign policy.

The Arab League summit has cemented his influence in the region and “burnished” Crown Prince MBS’s reputation as a leader in the Arab world, Patrick Theros, former US ambassador to Qatar, told Al Jazeera.

“Crown Prince MBS is determined to bring Saudi Arabia back to regional and even global leadership – to be at the center of it all,” said Kristin Diwan, a senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. “The Saudis have everything in their hands right now . ”

Minh Duc (According to Al Jazeera, NY Times, Middle East Eye)

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