Nova Poltavka falls, Pokrovsk city in danger

According to the Russian website Military Review, after 13 days of fierce street fighting, the Russian military (RFAF) took full control of the village of Novaya Poltavka on the north side of Highway T0504 on May 17. This is an important position, controlling the route from the city of Kostiantynivka to Pokrovsk.

The latest battlefield map from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), shows that the RFAF not only consolidated this gain but also made significant progress northward at the neighboring village of Malynivka; expanding its stronghold in this area.

The loss of these two key positions by the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) shows that the Russian army has taken the initiative on the battlefield north of the T0504 axis and that the encirclement of Pokrovsk is accelerating. At the same time, the RFAF can attack the city of Kostiantynivka from the southwest.

Earlier on May 4, the Russian army began attacking Novaya Poltavka, the Ukrainian army relied on the buildings in the village to fight back fiercely; the two sides fought for each house, and the Russian army only advanced a few dozen meters per day.

But the situation changed on May 12, when Russian troops crossed the T0504 axis west of the village, stormed and took control of most of Malynivka, forming a pincer attack on Novaya Poltavka, from the north and south.

Four days later, the Ukrainians at Novaya Poltavka ran out of ammunition and food and were forced to retreat. The stalemate lasted for two weeks and the Russians captured the “gateway” east of Pokrovsk and south of Kostiantynivka, at the cost of hundreds of casualties.

According to the Pentagon’s Liveuamap battlefield map, the RFAF controlled a 10-kilometer stretch east of the T0504 highway and penetrated the Ukrainian defenses to a depth of 3 kilometers. After taking control of Novaya Poltavka, the RFAF quickly advanced to the Poltavka River, controlling the settlement of the same name, located north of Novaya Poltavka. The two villages of Novaya Poltavka and Poltavka are about 6.5 kilometers apart.

Since there are no large villages within 20 km northwest of Novaya Poltavka that can serve as a defensive fulcrum, Russian mechanized forces are advancing north at a speed of 2-3 km per day and the encirclement of Pokrovsk from the southeast and north is expected to be completed by the end of June.

Even more dangerous than the physical siege is the Russian blockade of supply lines to the Ukrainian defenses in Pokrovsk. Ukrainian media revealed that on the T0514 highway between Krasnoyarsk and Kramatorsk, several Ukrainian military transport trucks were destroyed by Russian FPV UAVs north of Dobropilya.

The location where the AFU military vehicle was attacked was 29 km from the nearest position controlled by the Russian military, far beyond the operational range of traditional UAVs. Currently, the operational radius of the RFAF's latest FPV UAV models has exceeded 30 km; some models even reach 40 km.

Currently, there are only three supply routes to Pokrovsk, namely the E50 highway, the T0514 and the T0515. However, the E50 highway is only 4 km from the Russian-controlled village of Kotlyne, and the T0514 near the city is also within the range of Russian FPV UAVs.

Take the Battle of Kursk as an example; when the Russian positions were 5-6 km from the Ukrainian supply line, they cut off the AFU's transport route with various types of UAVs 24/7. Today, the supply convoy for the city of Pokrovsk needs to pass through the T0515 highway in the north, but the distance from this section to the Russian positions has been shortened to 10 km and can be blocked by conventional FPV UAVs.

Ukrainian frontline soldiers revealed on social media that since May, their ammunition consumption rate on the battlefield has tripled to normal levels, but their supplies have decreased by 60%. In particular, their stock of heavy weapons such as anti-tank missiles and anti-aircraft shells is only enough for less than a week.

More seriously, due to Russian drones scouting day and night, Ukrainian transport teams can only transport at night with the risk of losing lives and the loss rate of a single transport team, exceeding 40%.

The consequences of this “strangulation war” are becoming clear, as since May, the AFU has lost seven villages around the city of Pokrovsk and all counterattacks have failed due to insufficient firepower. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian troops here do not dare to come out of their shelters, for fear that RFAF bombs and artillery can rain down on them at any time.

Many AFU frontline commanders admitted that some soldiers had shown signs of mutiny due to the fierce battlefield, lack of water and food, leading to a 200% increase in desertion compared to April. Meanwhile, the RFAF relied on the advantage of UAVs, continuing to weaken the AFU's numbers, at the cost of the RFAF being "zero casualties".

At the current rate of RFAF advance, the encirclement of Pokrovsk on three sides will be complete by mid-June, and by then, ground artillery fire will be able to cover the entire city. But what will really decide the outcome of the battle is the complete blockade of supply lines by UAVs.

When the city's defenders are trapped in a desperate situation, with no food to eat, no weapons to fight with; overhead bombs, RFAF artillery shells are constantly firing, the collapse of the psychological defense line, can come faster than military defeat.

It is worth noting that the RFAF's combat capabilities in Pokrovsk this time, showed clear characteristics of "information warfare", with FPV UAVs as the core, combined with satellite reconnaissance and artillery linkage, into a "detect and destroy" destruction chain was built.

If this RFAF tactic is applied on other battlefields, it could redefine the rules of modern land warfare. The fate of Pokrovsk could become an important indicator to observe the direction of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. (image source: Sina, Military Review, Al Jazeera, Kyiv Post).

Source: https://khoahocdoisong.vn/nova-poltavka-that-thu-thanh-pho-pokrovsk-lam-nguy-post1542800.html