The West missed the aid deadline, is Ukraine strong enough to withstand the thirst for artillery shells?

Ukrainian soldiers prepare artillery shells (Photo: AFP).

Ukraine has faced the harsh reality of a shortage of 155mm artillery shells after Israel began its ground campaign in the Gaza Strip. How long can Ukraine hold out without ammunition?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has complained to Western media that the supply of 155mm artillery shells from NATO has decreased sharply since the Israel-Hamas conflict began.

US media quoted Ukrainian officials as saying that the supply of artillery shells had recently dropped sharply by “more than 30%”. Meanwhile, US defence officials argued that the reduction in ammunition supplies was “completely unrelated to what is happening in Gaza”.

"Indeed, the intensity of fire (in the conflict zone) has decreased sharply. Ukraine is not capable of producing Western ammunition. Now they have a real problem. They can produce Soviet artillery shells, but their industrial capacity has been destroyed by Russian attacks on infrastructure," Anatoly Matviychuk, a military expert and veteran of combat operations in Afghanistan and Syria, told Sputnik .

According to Matviychuk, Russia currently uses about 25,000-50,000 artillery shells of various calibers per day. Meanwhile, Ukraine responds with only 7,000-11,000 artillery shells.

Expert Matviychuk noted that while the Ukrainian army continues to heavily shell residential areas in the eastern Donbass region, its activity on the front line is gradually decreasing.

"Ukraine does not have air superiority. The firepower of artillery and long-range weapons supplied to the country by the UK, the US and Germany is decreasing. I believe that in the near future, especially during the winter cold, they will begin to suffer defeats in terms of firepower," Matviychuk said.

Will the US continue to aid Ukraine?

The situation is becoming more complicated as the aid previously provided to Ukraine by the US with the approval of the US Congress is gradually drying up.

The latest batch of $100 million in US military aid, announced by US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin during a recent visit to Kiev, comes from an existing aid package. Meanwhile, Republican lawmakers are opposing a new aid package requested by US President Joe Biden, worth $61 billion.

In early November, the Republican-controlled House of Representatives passed a bill to provide $14.3 billion in military aid to Israel, while Ukraine was left out. The Senate later blocked the proposal, forcing Republicans to consider a combined aid package for both Israel and Ukraine.

The debate continues, but Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene warned that Republicans would be “furious” if the House green-lighted billions of dollars in aid to Kiev amid a domestic border security crisis. According to recent polls, 59% of Republicans say the government is spending too much on Ukraine.

Will Europe provide more artillery shells to Ukraine?

Ukrainian soldiers open fire in Donetsk (Photo: Reuters).

Last week, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius admitted that the EU was unlikely to meet its target of sending one million artillery shells to Ukraine by March. The crux of the problem, meanwhile, is that Ukraine has been consuming artillery shells faster than the US and its NATO allies can produce them.

According to Matviychuk, the depletion of EU military reserves is only part of the problem. What is important, he said, is that Europe is skeptical about pouring more ammunition and money into Ukraine.

"Now in the Netherlands, the new prime minister has questioned the feasibility of supplying equipment and weapons to Ukraine. I think Europe is stuck in a special situation. There is no gas, or gas is very expensive, the economy is starting to decline. So I think that as this conflict drags on, Europe will start to move away, because they have to solve their own domestic problems. They need to solve their own problems, not Ukraine's problems," Matviychuk said.

Expert Matviychuk doubts the scenario of Europe focusing its economic resources on the production of artillery shells and military equipment in the coming time to meet Kiev's needs.

In that context, expert Matviychuk believes that Russia can wait. He predicts a breakthrough scenario when Ukraine withdraws from its current positions, and Kiev may even propose peace talks.

Solution for "thirst" for artillery shells

General Valery Zaluzhny, Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, stressed the need to develop and apply new technologies to break the current deadlock.

As Ukraine tries to develop its own artillery systems, Kiev has the potential to take advantage of advances from the commercial sector.

Ukraine also has the potential to manufacture weapons. They are considered capable of militarizing commercial technology, especially those related to artificial intelligence (AI).

In the field of artillery, AI has the potential to be a useful tool, reducing the time needed to target enemy forces, while also making artillery shells more accurate, thereby saving ammunition while still achieving the necessary effectiveness.

Ukraine has begun to adapt its artillery tactics to catch up with Russia. For example, Ukraine has been using loitering drones (UAVs) comparable to the Lancet against Russia, including the American Switchblade and the Polish Warmate, both of which have capabilities comparable to the Russian Lancet.

Source: https://dantri.com.vn/the-gioi/phuong-tay-lo-hen-vien-tro-ukraine-du-suc-cam-cu-truoc-con-khat-dan-phao-20231126151316765.htm