Morning of May 12: Central exchange rate decreased by 6 VND

The US dollar rose in early Monday trading amid improved market sentiment following positive signs from US-China trade talks, raising hopes of avoiding a global recession . Details of the outcome of the talks are expected to be released later today.

In Geneva, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent praised “substantial progress” in talks with China. China also said the two sides had reached “important consensus” and agreed to launch a new economic dialogue forum. A joint statement is expected later Monday. However, neither side has yet mentioned specific tariffs.

Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone, said the parties appear to have reached a broad framework for continuing talks with the goal of reaching a comprehensive trade agreement. While it is not a groundbreaking result, he said it is not bad.

Investors are hoping that the US will soon reduce tariffs on Chinese goods, currently at 145%, to at least the 60% level initially announced by President Donald Trump. However, Mr. Trump has taken a tough stance on maintaining tariffs, which could stifle economic growth and increase inflation. In that context, any progress on trade is expected to help reduce the risk of a deep recession.

Early signs from the interbank foreign exchange market suggest that buying of the US dollar, particularly against the Swiss franc, Japanese yen and euro, is being supported by expectations for upcoming US CPI and retail sales figures, according to Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone.

Geopolitical tensions also eased somewhat after India and Pakistan declared a ceasefire over the weekend, ending four days of fighting. In addition, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he was ready to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Turkey next Thursday for direct talks, the first since the conflict broke out in 2022.

Against the yen, the dollar rose 0.36 percent to 145.89 yen per dollar.

The euro fell 0.08% to $1.1241.

Similarly, the British pound fell 0.14% to $1.3288.

Elsewhere, the New Zealand dollar, one of the currencies seen as an indicator of global risk appetite, rose 0.3% to $0.5927.

The Australian dollar also recorded a gain of 0.22%, trading at $0.6428.

The Trump administration’s inconsistent trade policies have weighed on the dollar recently, but the currency has received some support after the Federal Reserve signaled it was in no rush to raise interest rates.

U.S. inflation data for April, due this week, is seen as a key indicator of the impact of tariffs, while retail sales are expected to stabilize after a sharp increase last month amid a surge in pre-tariff shopping.

Financial information from retail giant Walmart is due to be released on Thursday, providing further clues as to when Chinese goods could become scarce in the U.S. consumer market.

Analysts at ANZ said May CPI data would provide clearer evidence of the impact of tariffs on inflation, so they see June as too early for the Fed to cut rates and see a more realistic timeframe for a rate cut in the third quarter, possibly September.

Meanwhile, the market has adjusted expectations for the Fed's monetary policy. Fed funds futures fell 3 to 7 basis points in the first session of the week.

The probability of a rate cut in June is now just 17%, down sharply from more than 60% a month ago. However, the market still rates the possibility of a July adjustment at 59%.

Several Fed officials are scheduled to speak this week, with Chairman Jerome Powell speaking on Thursday.

Source: https://thoibaonganhang.vn/sang-125-ty-gia-trung-tam-giam-6-dong-164007.html