Tesla, Elon Musk and the 4 words that could determine the year 2025

(Dan Tri) - As Tesla sinks deeper into crisis, a veteran analyst asserts: “We have hit rock bottom.” Is this a turning point or just a final bounce?

Total Crisis: From Robotaxi Dream to Peril

For Tesla shareholders and fans, the first half of this year has been nothing short of a “grim test of endurance.” The electric car company, once considered a symbol of innovation, is now struggling amid a series of crises, from technology, sales to politics .

The focus was on the launch of the robotaxi - a dream that Elon Musk has cherished for many years. At the end of June, Tesla officially deployed a fleet of self-driving Model Y cars to test in Austin, Texas, with a price of only $4.20 per trip.

However, excitement quickly gave way to skepticism when social media videos showed the car going the wrong way, braking suddenly, and nearly hitting a pedestrian. The US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) got involved, while the feasibility of the “vision-only” system (using only cameras instead of radar) was questioned.

Meanwhile, Tesla sales in Europe have plummeted. In the Nordic region alone, new car registrations in June were down more than 60% compared to the same period last year, and in Sweden the decline was as much as 64%. Across the EU, May sales were down more than 40%. Meanwhile, Chinese rivals such as BYD are rapidly gaining market share thanks to low prices, a wide range of models, and rapid product launches.

But the real storm could come from Elon Musk. His controversial statements, especially his disagreements with former President Trump, have unnerved investors. Trump has said that if elected, he would cut off federal subsidies that are vital to Tesla.

Since 2019, the company has earned more than $10 billion from selling emissions credits, a source of revenue that accounts for a third of its net income. If cut off, Tesla risks losing an important financial pillar.

Investors watch Tesla shares for signs of recovery (Photo: Getty).

Surprise and the 4-word prophecy

Amid the pessimism that has gripped Wall Street, a surprising contrasting view has emerged. On Bloomberg TV, Gene Munster, a veteran analyst and managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, delivered a succinct, four-word assessment: "We're at the bottom."

Munster’s forecast isn’t based on blind optimism. He’s basing it on Tesla’s recently released second-quarter delivery report, which showed that the company delivered about 384,000 vehicles globally. While that’s down 13% from the same period last year, it’s still 4% higher than the consensus analyst forecast. Notably, it’s above the pessimistic threshold that financial institutions like Goldman Sachs had previously set, which had estimated around 365,000 vehicles.

Not only that, second quarter sales increased 14% compared to the first quarter, showing signs of stability and potential recovery. The two main models, Model 3 and Model Y, continue to be the pillars, accounting for almost all sales.

Tesla shares jumped nearly 5% in early trading after Munster’s report and comments were widely reported, before paring back. The mixed reaction reflects the conflicting sentiments among investors: one side still holds out hope, the other cannot deny the risks.

Two scenarios for the remaining journey

Munster's "bottoming out" statement is not just a market comment, but also opens up two clear scenarios for Tesla's future.

Optimistic scenario: The second quarter of this year is the bottom of the downturn cycle. From here, Tesla will overcome the most difficult period from competitive pressure to internal fluctuations.

As the supply chain stabilizes and demand recovers, the company could regain momentum. While there are many hurdles ahead for robotaxis, if they make a technological or regulatory leap, they could be a huge “trump card” that could revalue the entire company.

The bearish scenario: This is all just a dead cat bounce—a short-term reaction to a long-term downtrend. Tesla continues to lose market share to Chinese rivals, its prices continue to be squeezed, squeezing margins, and the future of robotaxis is clouded by a series of failures and regulatory hurdles. Elon Musk, meanwhile, continues to stir up controversy, adding to shareholder uncertainty.

2025 could be one of the defining years in Tesla’s history, not just because of the shocks but also because of its ability to overcome them. The assertion that “we’ve hit bottom” is not a guarantee of success, but rather a hypothesis that needs to be tested with each successive quarter.

Still, for Tesla enthusiasts, the four-word comment may be the first ray of hope after months of gloom.

Source: https://dantri.com.vn/kinh-doanh/tesla-elon-musk-va-4-chu-co-the-dinh-doat-ca-nam-2025-20250706220612530.htm