Which 'force' will decide the US election results?

(VTC News) - As the 2024 US presidential election approaches, both Democratic and Republican candidates are focusing on voter groups that will play a decisive role.

In countries with compulsory voting, such as Australia and many in Latin America, the system typically ensures that a majority of voters turn out after each election. But in the United States, the story is quite different. Two-thirds of eligible voters cast ballots in the 2020 presidential election—the highest turnout since 1900. Turnout in presidential elections before 2020 has tended to hover between 50% and 65%. There are a few key groups of voters who could swing the election this year. Who didn’t vote Under the United States’ other Electoral College system, the candidate with the most votes nationwide doesn’t win the election. In the past 25 years, Democrats have won the popular vote twice in presidential races but still lost. A typical example is Hillary Clinton's defeat to Donald Trump in 2016. The election results depend heavily on the group of neutral voters in important battleground states. In these states, the winner will win all the votes of the Electoral College, regardless of the gap between the two candidates.

Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris are focusing on voters who will play a decisive role in this year's election. (Photo: EPA)

It is a fact that many voters do not even want to vote. But according to The Conversation, a voter refusing to vote sends another signal, they refuse to vote for the candidate they support and give an advantage to the person they do not choose. Therefore, not voting actually causes voters to "turn their backs" on their own interests. As this year's presidential election between Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris approaches, the question is: what will the rate of voters who do not vote be? In recent years, the US has been deeply divided by party and politics . Of which, about 30% of Americans identify as Republicans and 30% identify as Democrats, with almost no difference in the total number of voters supporting each major party. On the other hand, the remaining 40% of Americans identify as "independents" - that is, not leaning towards any major political party. But nearly seven decades of research on the American electorate shows that independents “lean” heavily toward one party or another, with about half leaning Republican and the other half leaning Democratic. According to the latest Gallup polling data, 9% of Republicans now have an unfavorable view of Mr. Trump. By contrast, only 5% of Democrats have an unfavorable view of Ms. Harris. It is voters who are dissatisfied with their party’s candidate who are most likely to abstain from voting. They don’t want to vote for the “opponent,” but they also don’t support their own party’s representative. For example, a suburban Republican woman, a veteran and a traditional Republican expressed distaste for Mr. Trump’s stance on reproductive rights and national security, as well as his temperament. So if these disaffected Republicans and Republican-leaning voters decide to stay home and not vote on November 5, the advantage will tilt toward Ms. Harris.

The second group of voters that could swing an election is American Jewish voters. Jews typically make up a small percentage of the electorate in U.S. elections, making up about 2% of the total electorate. Despite their relatively small numbers, they are still considered an important voting bloc, especially in battleground states. Traditionally, most American Jewish voters tend to support Democratic candidates, although there are variations depending on the particular election and the political climate.

Former President Donald Trump is trying to attract Jewish voters to vote for him. (Photo: Reuters)

Donald Trump is well aware of the role these people play in his campaign. In a speech at the National Conference of the American Israeli Council in Washington, the Republican complained that most Jewish voters were “turning their backs” on him. Accordingly, the former US President is trying to “woo” this group of voters with statements such as his support among the Jewish voter community has increased from 25% in 2016 to 29% in 2020. “And based on what I have done and the love that I have – and the love that you have – it should be 100%,” he lamented. Mr. Trump asserted that he was “the best American president ever,” under his leadership, relations between the US and Israel have improved a lot. However, a new poll shows that the support rate of the Jewish voter community for Mr. Trump is still below 40%. “You can’t let this happen. Forty percent is unacceptable, because we have an election to win,” Trump said. At a fundraising event themed “Fighting Anti-Semitism in America,” Trump added: “My promise to the American Jew is this: With your vote, I will be your protector, I will be your champion, and I will be the best friend that American Jewry has ever had in the White House. But to be fair, I already am.” He criticized Harris for President Joe Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict, and what he called anti-Semitic protests on college campuses and elsewhere. But the former president also repeatedly highlighted a clear political weakness: his persistent difficulty winning support from Jewish voters. He repeated his view that Jews who vote for Democrats “should reconsider.” Wisconsin is one of the key battleground states that both Trump and Harris are targeting. Notably, it is home to 40,000 Muslim voters. In 2020, Muslim voters overwhelmingly supported President Joe Biden by 86%. However, this year, the situation may be different. A recent poll by the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) found that about 60% of Muslim voters are considering third-party candidates or are still undecided.

Muslim voters are considering voting for a third-party candidate other than the Democrats and Republicans. (Photo: Newsweek)

Farhat Khan, a physician in Wisconsin, said he voted for the Democrats in 2020 and does not plan to do so again this year. Instead, Muslim voters are overwhelmingly supporting Jill Stein, a Green Party candidate who is also in the race. “I know Stein is not going to get to the White House, but if she gets 20,000 or 30,000 votes in Wisconsin and the Democrats lose, it will be a lesson to them that they should not ignore this growing community,” Khan stressed. However, between the current Democratic and Republican candidates, Muslim voters still lean toward Harris. So far, about 29% plan to vote for Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate, while about 29% support Vice President Kamala Harris. Meanwhile, only about 11% are leaning toward Donald Trump.

Vtcnews.vn

Source: https://vtcnews.vn/the-luc-nao-se-dinh-doat-ket-qua-bau-cu-my-ar898305.html