Stock market less uncertain

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The Vietnamese stock market opened July 2025 with a positive trading week. The VN-Index approached the 1,390-point mark after 4/5 sessions closed in the green, with 4/5 sessions recording net foreign capital inflows. Foreign investors thus recorded a remarkable disbursement week with a net purchase value of nearly VND 5,200 billion.

In the session of July 3, after the information posted by US President Donald Trump on social media that the US had reached a trade agreement with Vietnam, money flowed strongly into the Vietnamese stock market, with a transaction value of more than 38,200 billion VND. Although this agreement has not yet been detailed in writing, it is still considered an important milestone that helps to significantly reduce information uncertainty and investment orientation.

Positive market upgrade prospects

According to the regular plan, FTSE Russell will publish the market classification report on October 7. At the regular press conference of the Ministry of Finance in early July 2025, Mr. Hoang Van Thu, Vice Chairman of the State Securities Commission, said that the agency has been making efforts to achieve this goal in the upcoming FTSE assessment period.

Mr. Pham Luu Hung, Chief Economist of SSI Securities Corporation, assessed that the starting tax rate that the US could apply to Vietnam is "neutral" and expected that this level would not be too different from that of countries with similar development levels, thereby maintaining Vietnam's competitive position in the global supply chain.

According to Mr. Ho Tuan Huu Hieu, investment strategy expert at SSI Investment Analysis and Consulting Center, Vietnam is one of the first and rare countries to reach a tax agreement with the US. This has a positive meaning as it has reduced concerns about tax risks for investors, including individuals and organizations.

“Information uncertainty has been a major concern for investors in recent times. Reaching an agreement without specific documents, especially regulations on origin, has reduced uncertainty not only in information, but also in the investment perspective on Vietnam for foreign investors. With reduced uncertainty, the market will focus more on domestic economic momentum and real momentum from profit growth of listed enterprises,” Mr. Hieu commented.

In particular, Vietnam's GDP growth figures in the first half of 2025 brought many positive signals. Accordingly, GDP growth recorded the highest level in nearly 20 years, many indicators and indexes on production - business, state budget... improved month by month, quarter by quarter. In particular, the trade surplus is estimated at 7.63 billion USD, the number of enterprises joining and re-joining is 20% higher than the number of enterprises withdrawing from the market, the growth of total social investment capital in the second quarter was at double digits...

According to Minister of Finance Nguyen Van Thang, Vietnam's growth rate in 2025 is forecast to continue to be the highest in ASEAN and among the leading countries in the world and region.

Waiting for Q2 reporting season

According to statistics, in the past 10 years, VN-Index recorded 7 years of increase in points in July 2025. In addition to the impact of US trade policy, similar to previous years, the stock market this month continues to wait for the peak of the second quarter business results announcement season.

According to the forecast of business results in the second quarter of 2025 by Mr. Tran Hoang Son, Director of Market Strategy, VPBank Securities Joint Stock Company (VPBankS), the profits of many banks will grow well again. Along with that, the legalization of Resolution 42/2017/QH14 can create momentum to help the banking industry handle bad debts better.

Meanwhile, the retail group is expected to grow strongly. FPT Retail, Mobile World Investment Corporation and Digiworld are forecast to grow very well. Digiworld's profits could increase by one and a half times, while FPT Retail is forecast to increase by up to 290%.

Also giving a positive assessment, MB Securities Joint Stock Company (MBS) forecasts that the overall market profit in the second quarter of 2025 may record a growth rate of 14% over the same period. Of which, the banking industry profit is forecast to grow by 15% over the same period, supported by positive credit growth, and the net interest margin (NIM) will not decrease further.

Assessing positively about the seaport and logistics industry, experts from MBS expect that some businesses in this industry can "benefit" in the second quarter thanks to the vibrant trade situation, with export turnover continuing to grow positively, and global shipping rates recovering strongly from the bottom in April.

For the oil and gas group, experts believe that fluctuations in oil prices and the high base in the same period in 2024 will create differentiation between segments. The upstream group will grow strongly, such as the Petroleum Drilling and Well Services Corporation (PVDrilling) or the Vietnam Oil and Gas Pipe Coating Joint Stock Company (PVCoating), while the downstream group, such as the Vietnam National Petroleum Group (Petrolimex) or Binh Son Refining and Petrochemical Company Limited (BSR), may record a sharp decrease in profits due to high cost of goods sold.

The industrial park real estate group is also forecast to have clear differentiation, with continued positive growth in some companies such as Saigon VRG Investment Joint Stock Company, Nam Tan Uyen Industrial Park Joint Stock Company, but will be weak in the Industrial Development and Investment Corporation (Becamex) and Idico Corporation...

In the residential real estate sector, some businesses may experience a low point in their profits. However, the outlook for real estate businesses in the second half of 2025 will be more positive thanks to a series of projects expected to be handed over in the coming period. In addition, exchange rate fluctuations in the second quarter will have mixed impacts on businesses, as they will provide some support for export businesses but negatively affect businesses with foreign currency debt.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/thi-truong-chung-khoan-bot-noi-lo-bat-dinh-d323888.html