Oil market has a "red" week

The energy market was "red" last week. *Photo: MXV*

Oversupply pressure, world oil prices plummet

According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), the energy market was covered in red in the early and middle sessions of last week.

Notably, at the end of the trading session on August 12, the prices of all five energy commodities simultaneously weakened, causing the energy price list to be "red". Of which, Brent oil price closed at 66.12 USD/barrel, down 0.77%; WTI oil price decreased 1.24% to 63.17 USD/barrel. This is the lowest price since the beginning of June.

In the trading session on August 13, crude oil prices continued to decline in the context of many energy products closing in the red. Brent oil prices fell about 0.74%, falling to 65.63 USD/barrel, while WTI oil prices closed at 62.65 USD/barrel, corresponding to a decrease of 0.82%.

According to MXV, concerns about oversupply continue to dominate oil prices. The International Energy Agency (IEA) in August forecast that global oil demand growth in 2025 will slow slightly as demand in China and emerging economies such as India and Brazil shows signs of slowing.

Meanwhile, the IEA raised its forecast for global crude oil production growth to 2.5 million barrels per day, up from its previous forecast of 2.1 million barrels per day, following OPEC+'s decision to increase production in September.

The report also noted that total global crude oil inventories rose for the fifth consecutive month, reaching more than 7.8 billion barrels, the highest level in nearly four years, thereby raising concerns about the prospect of a supply glut similar to the EIA's previously published monthly forecast.

The oversupply scenario prompted the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) to lower its Brent oil price forecast to $58/barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and to around $50/barrel in early 2026. The average Brent oil price in 2026 was revised down from $58 to $51/barrel.

World oil prices jump to two-week high

However, according to MXV, the market in the trading session on August 14 was "bright green" when all items in the energy market increased in price.

WTI crude oil prices climbed to $63.96 per barrel, an increase of 2.09%. Brent crude oil prices also recorded an increase of about 1.84%, closing at $66.84 per barrel, the highest level in nearly 2 weeks.

The prospect of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve (FED) deciding to cut interest rates in September is becoming clearer. This expectation has become the main factor driving the increase of about 2% in crude oil prices in the last trading session of the week.

Currently, the CME FEDWatch tracking tool shows that investors are assessing the probability of the Fed cutting the base interest rate by 0.25% in September at up to 99.9%. Although there are concerns about the core CPI index rising again in July, many experts still believe that inflation in the US is currently controlled within a safe range.

In a recent statement, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent asserted that the current base interest rate of 4.25-4.5% is too high. The Secretary proposed an interest rate of around 3%, a figure that many Fed policymakers consider to be “neutral,” enough to not overstimulate the economy but also not create pressure to restrain inflation.

However, after a session of rising in reverse, on August 15, the world energy market was again in that color. Specifically, Brent oil price decreased by 0.99 USD, equivalent to 1.5%, to 65.85 USD/barrel. WTI oil price also lost 1.16 USD, equivalent to 1.8%, to 62.8 USD/barrel. Overall for the week, WTI oil price decreased by 1.7%, while Brent oil price decreased by 1.1%.

Investors are still looking forward to more specific results from the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin taking place early this morning (Vietnam time) in Alaska, USA and the impacts on the world oil market in the coming time.

Source: https://hanoimoi.vn/thi-truong-dau-co-tuan-ruc-do-712897.html