Commodity market 7/23: Continued volatility

Data from the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV) showed that the world raw material market continued to fluctuate in yesterday's trading session.

In the energy market, according to MXV, red dominated the energy market in yesterday's trading session. At the end of the trading session, WTI oil prices recorded a decrease of up to 1.47%, falling to 66.21 USD/barrel, the lowest level in nearly three weeks. Brent oil prices also decreased by 0.9% yesterday, stopping at 68.59 USD/barrel.

The global oil market continues to face a new wave of concerns about economic growth prospects, pushing energy demand to continue to weaken in the context of the US government's upcoming deadline for applying reciprocal tariffs. As of the end of yesterday's session, the US had only reached trade agreements with the UK, Vietnam and Indonesia. Information about the European Union (EU) preparing retaliatory measures or the less-than-optimistic negotiation process between the US and India further complicated the market picture.

In the context of escalating trade tensions, the latest move from the US and Japan has attracted attention in the international market. Accordingly, last night, Vietnam time, the US announced a trade agreement with Japan, thereby creating expectations that it will contribute to easing trade tensions in the current global market.

In addition, oil prices continue to be under pressure as the basic interest rate in the US remains high at 4.25-4.5%, according to the decision of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve (FED). Currently, the FED is facing considerable pressure from the administration of US President Donald Trump, demanding that it soon take drastic interest rate cuts to support economic growth.

Notably, several Fed governors and FOMC members have publicly supported the view of lowering interest rates to stimulate the economy, a move that has contributed to strengthening positive sentiment in the oil market as well as supporting demand thanks to a weaker USD. However, most market forecasts still believe that the FOMC will not rush to change policy, especially in the context of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and many other members continuing to maintain a steadfast stance with the target of controlling inflation at 2%.

In the metals market, on the other hand, the metal market witnessed strong buying power as 8 out of 10 commodities closed in the green. Notably, COMEX copper prices continued to extend their gains for the third consecutive session, rising nearly 1.5% to $12,613/ton and setting a new record high never recorded before. This development reflects a strong hoarding trend, as concerns about the risk of local supply shortages due to the US tightening tariffs remain.

Earlier, US President Donald Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper on July 8, and the copper market immediately reacted strongly. Data from Kpler shows that immediately after this move, copper prices on the COMEX floor skyrocketed, causing the price gap with LME copper to immediately widen from 11% to 27%. Notably, by the trading session on July 22, this large gap was still maintained around the 27% threshold.

The psychology of hoarding refined copper is increasing rapidly in the US as the new tax rate is approaching, in a context where the market still has concerns about the country's ability to self-supply in the near future. Data from the US International Trade Commission (US ITC) shows that in the first 5 months of the year, the amount of refined copper imported into the US reached 680,727 tons - more than double the same period in 2024 and equivalent to nearly 74% of the total import volume of last year. Of which, Chile continues to be the largest supplier when exporting to the US reached 409,463 tons, double the same period last year.

The pressure of racing against time is spreading across the market as international traders rush to increase refined copper imports into the US before the new tax rate is applied. According to Kpler, a typical case is the Kiating ship, departing from Australia on July 16, expected to arrive at Honolulu (Hawaii, US) on July 30 - right before the upcoming tax rate on August 1. Notably, Honolulu has never been a destination for large refined copper shipments before, showing that importing businesses are flexibly exploiting all routes and seaports to ensure customs clearance procedures are completed before the tax policy takes effect.

Source: https://baolamdong.vn/thi-truong-hang-hoa-23-7-tiep-tuc-bien-dong-giang-co-383345.html