Israeli intelligence misjudged Iran's missile power

Israel's military chief of staff has warned that Iran will launch more missiles and a difficult battle is inevitable for Tel Aviv.

So far, after 12 days of fighting, the Iran-Israel war has “temporarily stopped”, according to a temporary ceasefire declared by US President Donal Trump. But after 12 days of war, it can be seen that Israel has overestimated its strength and judgment.

The clearest evidence is that they cannot quickly defeat Iran, but must wait for the intervention of the United States. This conflict will certainly drag Israel and Iran into a new cycle of hatred, and both sides are "wiping their noses" to continue preparing for a new war.

Earlier on the evening of June 20, The Times of Israel, quoting the Commander-in-Chief of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), General Eyal Zamir, warned the Israelis that they must prepare for a "long-term operation against Iran" to "eliminate this (nuclear) threat".

This suggests that Israel's war with Iran is unlikely to end quickly, and that there may be some temporary ceasefires in between. That means Israel will inevitably be drawn into a protracted war with Iran.

General Zamir also said that the reason Israel launched the attack on Iran was because it knew that Iran had about 2,500 surface-to-surface missiles and a very high rate of missile production. These are weapons that can attack Israeli territory and directly threaten Israel's security.

Before the war, Israel expected Iran to have about 8,000 missiles in about two years, which means that Iran has a lot of missiles and Tehran can produce about 5,500 missiles in two years, that is about 2,750 missiles a year, equivalent to about 230 missiles a month and can double in wartime.

In this context, Iran’s missiles will increase in number, and the output can fully meet the need to fight Israel for a long time. Among them are many modern missiles, with great penetration ability, carrying many types of warheads, such as nuclear or cluster munitions…

General Zamir also said that the IDF "has been preparing for this operation (war with Iran) for many years" and carried out this operation "due to a combination of tactical and strategic conditions". He also said that the "raid" launched by Israel against Iran from the beginning of the war, "achieved extraordinary results".

“We attacked Iran’s high command, dealt a heavy blow to a key part of its nuclear program, cut off its flight path to Tehran, and identified and destroyed about half of its missile launchers. Some were even destroyed within minutes of launch. Despite Iran’s high alert, we succeeded in carrying out a surprise attack,” said General Zamir.

At the same time, the Times of Israel also reported that Israeli security agencies realized that the military campaign against Iran, which began on June 13, would take longer than expected. Initially, Israel's goal in this operation was to achieve its goal within a week or two.

But judging by the current results, 13 days have passed and it is clear that Israel has not achieved its original goal. Iran continues to launch missiles at Israel on a daily basis and on a large scale. The war only stopped when the US President declared a ceasefire between the two sides.

The possibility of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel remains unclear, but it’s worth speculating about the interim outcome of the current conflict, according to a new article on The Conversation. Although Iran was caught off guard by the Israeli strikes, which came at a time when it was engaged in nuclear negotiations with the US, it managed to respond by launching hundreds of missiles.

Although some of the Iranian missiles were intercepted, a large number of missiles still penetrated Israel's air defense system, causing widespread destruction in major cities, killing dozens of people and injuring hundreds, The Conversation wrote.

Iran has demonstrated its ability to strike back, although Israel has destroyed its air defense systems and some ballistic missile launchers. Israel claims to have achieved its objectives, but the extent of damage to Iran's nuclear program and its ability to continue enriching uranium is unknown.

The Conversation stressed that both sides may remain in an “unstable” stalemate and that conflict could flare up again as soon as one of them sees a strategic opportunity. The Conversation also said that Tehran may focus all its resources on restoring its air defense system, possibly with supplies from China. (Photo source: Al Jazeera, IRNA, The Time of Israel).

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