The future of the Dragunov SVD sniper rifle after the Ukraine conflict

Considered a "legendary" sniper rifle model in the world, but the future of the SVD Dragunov sniper rifle may be discontinued after the Ukraine conflict ends.

Special forces (Russian, Ukrainian and NATO) fighting on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield have rewritten more than one rulebook of combat. New combat realities have emerged at all levels; at the tactical level, a significant transformation in sniper operations has been observed.

In some cases, snipers have been successfully replaced by anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) batteries. Anti-tank gunners in mobile anti-tank teams have virtually “nothing left” to do, as tanks have gradually disappeared from the battlefield and ATGM gunners have taken over the sniper’s job on the battlefield, that is, destroying firing points and even enemy infantry.

In fact, it takes a lot of time and money to train a pair of snipers, capable of killing targets at a distance of 1,000 meters. But why risk being a "surgeon" on the battlefield, when you can hit enemy bunkers with an AGTM?

ATGMs can engage targets at much greater distances than sniper rifles, thus eliminating the possibility of enemy fire. As a result, in some cases, all-terrain vehicles carrying ATGMs have taken on the role of providing direct fire support to attacking units. A variety of ATGM tactics have been developed by the Russian Armed Forces (RFAF) from battlefield practice, including the use of three types of ATGMs: Kornet at long range, Konkurs at medium range, and Fagots in close combat.

But let's return to sniper weapons, with the main topic being the SVD sniper rifle or sniper rifle for infantry units; when there are now many opinions of soldiers on the battlefield, suggesting gradually abandoning the SVD Dragunov close combat semi-automatic rifle and similar sniper models.

There are several reasons for this, firstly, aerial reconnaissance has significantly expanded the “gray zone”, where it is simply impossible to position snipers at distances below 1,000 meters. As a result, all current high-precision small arms operate at distances above a kilometer.

In such a battlefield scenario, the SVD is completely useless - its effective range does not exceed 300-400 meters. It is worth noting that even the operation of a long-range sniper rifle must be disguised with machine gun fire when opening fire; otherwise, the enemy will quickly determine the exact location of the sniper pair. More precisely, not a pair, but now a trio and even five.

For snipers to operate effectively, they now need not only an observer but also a machine gunner, a reconnaissance UAV operator and even an evacuation team. Snipers in special operations are forced to work most of their time at night.

According to frontline soldiers, up to 80% of combat operations take place at night. Through thermal imaging devices, targets appear to have greater contrast and are much less likely to be detected. Night conditions reduce the effective range (even with high-quality thermal imaging devices), which is not beneficial for snipers using SVD rifles.

The second reason for the reduction in the number of SVDs on the front was the transformation of the RFAF's tactical units. Previously, the smallest assault unit was the squad level, now it is infantry teams of 2 to 3 men. According to the old RFAF combat regulations, in a mechanized infantry squad, there was usually a sniper carrying an SVD; he not only supported the unit with high-precision fire from the SVD sniper rifle, but also acted as an assault rifleman, while still armed with the AK-74.

But with the current battlefield situation, no one in their right mind would attack with an SVD. The main purpose of a sniper in modern combat is to cut off enemy lines of approach and destroy machine gun positions, ATGM nests and automatic grenade launchers.

An indirect confirmation of the above can be considered the almost complete absence of SVD rifles in photos and videos from Russia and Ukraine. If in the first year the SVD rifles were still “sporadic”, then later sniper units with heavy ATGMs and long-range sniper rifles emerged.

The natural increase in combat distances in the conditions of a frozen front, led to the introduction of more accurate weapons with a greater effective range. It is no coincidence that the Chukavin sniper rifle replaced the SVD, as the Chukavin with a range of 1,200 meters (similar to the SVD sniper rifle), effective range at 500-700 meters, further than the SVD.

However, SVDs also have their own advantages, first of all due to their higher accuracy; therefore, there is still hope for the proper use of SVDs and there is still a place for them on some battlefields.

Urban battles in Ukraine, where there are many targets of high-rise buildings. The combat contact distance in such conditions will inevitably be reduced, which means that dense sniper fire at a range of 200-300 meters will be required. Only the SVD and Chukavin sniper rifles can provide this.

But does the RFAF need this type of weapon when heavy weapons are the priority? This is exactly how the RFAF currently conducts attacks on buildings, where threats are destroyed by FABs, missiles, thermobaric munitions and especially FPV UAVs. And then the infantry attack.

For example, in the attack on the city of Bakhmut in April 2023, the RFAF brought 152mm 2S19 Msta-S self-propelled guns into the city to fire directly, immediately extinguishing AFU resistance nests in high-rise buildings.

From the above reasons, there is reason to doubt the real role of the SVD-type close-combat sniper rifle in future wars, when the era of UAVs comes to power. It may still be able to play a role in certain combat situations, but in general, it has also ended its historical mission. (photo source: Military Review, Wikipedia, TASS).

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