“The impressive growth rate after 40 years of renovation has made Vietnam a 'bright star' on the world economic map. However, to avoid the 'middle income trap' and realize its development aspirations, Vietnam needs to act promptly, maximize its internal strength and change its position in the global supply chain...”, said Prof. Dr. Hoang Van Cuong.
Reviewing the important achievements after 40 years of renovation, Prof. Dr. Hoang Van Cuong said that the GDP scale in 2025 is estimated to reach about 500 billion USD, 64 times higher than in 1986. With an average income per capita of about 5,000 USD, Vietnam has surpassed the threshold to become an upper middle-income country.
With an average growth rate of about 7% per year in recent times, Vietnam is among the leading countries in Asia and has always been a "bright star" in the world's economic growth sky. Import and export of goods have continuously increased, bringing Vietnam into the top 20 trading countries in the world. Vietnam has also become an important production center of the world in the textile, footwear, and electronics industries with many global-scale foreign direct investment (FDI) enterprises choosing Vietnam as their base.
However, looking at the reality, Prof. Dr. Hoang Van Cuong said that the internal strength of the economy has not been fully exploited. Exports depend mainly on the FDI sector (accounting for over 70%). The connection and spread from the FDI sector to domestic enterprises is still very limited. The domestic value added content of key export goods only accounts for about 30 to 35%.
On the other hand, domestic production mainly focuses on processing and assembly, mainly undertaking low value-added stages in the value chain and lying at the bottom of the smile curve. As a result, Vietnam's labor productivity is among the lowest in the world and is slow to improve.
“If we do not change, we will miss the opportunity of the golden population period and risk falling into the middle-income trap,” said the Vice President of the Vietnam Economic Association .
The current world economic context is full of volatility, with geopolitical tensions, technological competition, and increasing nationalist protectionism, but Professor Hoang Van Cuong emphasized that within these challenges, the door to new opportunities is opening wide.
Accordingly, trends in green revolution, digital transformation, artificial intelligence (AI), and automation are changing the production structure and global trade position. In many new areas, the gap between developed and developing countries is considered to be at the same starting line. Many countries have adjusted their strategies, seeking to participate more deeply in the global value chain to increase resilience and take advantage of new opportunities.
"This is the time for Vietnam to break through, create momentum from its internal strength to realize its aspirations to rise up," affirmed Prof. Dr. Hoang Van Cuong. At the same time, this economic expert also emphasized that if it takes appropriate and timely actions, Vietnam can participate from the beginning in emerging, high-tech industries, becoming an important link in the global supply chain, instead of stopping at the processing and assembly stage.
"This is a fast and sustainable development path to achieve double-digit growth, creating momentum for Vietnam to achieve the goal of becoming a high-income developed country by 2045," emphasized Prof. Dr. Hoang Van Cuong.
Source: https://baotintuc.vn/kinh-te/viet-nam-phat-huy-noi-luc-thay-doi-vi-the-trong-chuoi-cung-ung-toan-cau-20251002174057109.htm
![[Photo] Binh Trieu 1 Bridge has been completed, raised by 1.1m, and will open to traffic at the end of November.](https://vphoto.vietnam.vn/thumb/1200x675/vietnam/resource/IMAGE/2025/10/2/a6549e2a3b5848a1ba76a1ded6141fae)
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