2 scenarios predicting the movement direction of storm MATMO

2 kịch bản dự báo hướng di chuyển của bão MATMO- Ảnh 1. — Path of storm MATMO on the afternoon of October 3

On October 2, a tropical depression in the sea east of the Philippines strengthened into the 21st storm in the Northwest Pacific region and was given the international name MATMO.

According to forecasts from international meteorological centers, by the afternoon of October 3, storm MATMO will enter the East Sea, becoming the 11th storm of 2025. Around the afternoon and night of October 5, the storm will pass the area between Hainan Island and Leizhou Peninsula (China) to enter the northern part of the Gulf of Tonkin. The storm's intensity when in the east of Leizhou Peninsula will reach level 12-13, when entering the Gulf of Tonkin it will decrease to level 10 and is likely to enter the mainland of Quang Ninh province, then gradually weaken.

According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, at 1 p.m. on October 3, the eye of the storm was located at about 16.8 degrees North latitude; 121.0 degrees East longitude, on the mainland north of Luzon Island, Philippines. The strongest wind near the eye of the storm was level 9-10 (75-102 km/h), gusting to level 13. The storm moved west-northwest at a speed of about 25 km/h.

In the eastern sea area of the North East Sea, the wind gradually increases to level 6-7, then increases to level 8-9; the area near the storm's center has strong winds of level 10-11, gusts of level 14, waves from 4.0-6.0m high, and very rough seas.

From October 4, the North East Sea will have strong winds of level 8-10; the area near the storm's eye will have strong winds of level 11-13, gusts of level 16, waves 4.0-6.0m high, the area near the storm's eye will have 6.0-8.0m high, and the sea will be very rough.

2 scenarios for the movement of storm MATMO

According to the Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, Mai Van Khiem, when entering the East Sea, the storm will encounter favorable conditions for development with sea surface temperatures of about 29°C and little wind shear. Meanwhile, the subtropical high pressure will move westward, causing the storm to tend to strengthen and move quickly, with an average speed of 25-30 km/h. The maximum intensity can reach level 12-13, gusting to level 14-15 when east of the Leizhou Peninsula.

Since the storm entered the sea of Guangdong province (China), the subtropical high pressure tongue weakened, opening up two movement scenarios for storm No. 11 (MATMO).

Scenario 1 has a probability of 70-75%: High pressure weakens rapidly, the storm moves to the North and travels more over land, the path is quite similar to storm No. 9. When entering the North of Quang Ninh, the intensity decreases by 2-4 levels compared to the maximum. In the Gulf of Tonkin, strong winds of level 9-10, in the mainland of Quang Ninh - Hai Phong, strong winds of level 8-9, the North has heavy rain, focusing on the midlands and mountainous areas.

Scenario 2 has a probability of 25-30%: The high pressure weakens slightly, the storm moves mainly over the sea, so it weakens less. When entering Quang Ninh, the storm is still strong at level 9-10, gusting to level 12-14. The impact extends south to Ninh Binh, with heavier rain and strong winds spreading further inland.

"The scenarios will be clearer when the storm actually enters the East Sea, so regular updates are needed. Currently, the Department of Hydrometeorology issues four bulletins per day. From the afternoon of October 3, when storm MATMO enters the East Sea, it will increase to eight bulletins per day," said Mr. Khiem.

Due to the storm's influence, from the night of October 5 to the end of the night of October 7, the Northern region and Thanh Hoa will have heavy to very heavy rain, with rainfall ranging from 100-200 mm in general, and over 300 mm in some areas; in the mountainous and midland regions of the Northern region, rainfall will range from 150-250 mm, with over 400 mm in some places. From October 6 to 9, the Northern region, Thanh Hoa and Nghe An will experience a flood, with flood peaks on rivers at alert level 2 to above alert level 3.

Thu Cuc

Source: https://baochinhphu.vn/2-kich-ban-du-bao-huong-di-chuyen-cua-bao-matmo-102251003155753881.htm